NJ weather: Warming into the 60s, only one rain chance this week
The Bottom Line
Frosty mornings and pre-5pm sunsets are facts of life here in New Jersey in November. So is dry weather — it is actually our 2nd driest month of the year, on average. (Behind only February.)
But if you're tired of the cold nights and cooler-than-normal afternoons, you'll love the forecast for the next several days. Thermometers return to the 60s for the next four or five days in a row.
There will be three storm systems to watch this week too. The first, a coastal storm system, will stay about 400 miles away from New Jersey. (Still close enough for a breeze and coastal flooding issues.) The second, a Wednesday morning cold front, looks dry. And the third will be the most significant, with heavy rain a possibility for Friday.
Let the warmup begin! We starting off in the chilly zone once again, with temperatures ranging from the mid 20s (NW NJ) to the mid 40s (southern coast). A wide stripe of area away from the Shore is starting off in frost/freeze territory.
We'll warm up quickly around mid-morning Monday, aiming for the lower 60s Monday afternoon. Our first trip into the above-normal 60s in exactly one week. Skies will be sunny and dry, making for a pleasant day.
There is a strong coastal storm system meandering over the Atlantic Ocean, which will have two impacts on New Jersey on Monday. First, it will be breezy at times, especially near the coast. Predominant wind direction will be northerly. Second, an extra foot of water presents the risk for minor coastal flooding at high tide, for the fourth day in a row. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for the Jersey Shore through Monday morning's high tide cycle.
Monday night's forecast is a little tricky, with a wide spread of possible temperatures among our suite of forecast models. I can say with high confidence that it won't be as cold as the past several nights. My call puts lows in the lower-mid 40s across most of the state. That means all but far northernwestern New Jersey should avoid a frost.
The overnight challenge comes if temperatures really crash, to meet the dew point. There are some hints of dense fog potentially forming overnight, especially in the southern half of the state. Not a guarantee we hit that magical 100% relative humidity number, but the chance is worth a mention.
Probably the nicest day of the week. Mostly sunny skies, dry weather, dry air, and light winds. Highs will push into the mid 60s, approaching 10 degrees above seasonal normals.
50-ish in the morning. Lower-mid 60s in the afternoon. Another nice day, overall.
A cold front will push through New Jersey early Wednesday morning. But it's hardly worth batting an eye over. It looks too dry to sustain any raindrops over New Jersey. And our new air mass will be very similar to the old one.
Still, I've put high temperatures a degree or two cooler on Wednesday, compared to Tuesday. We'll have substantial cloud cover to start the day, but golden sunshine will return soon enough. A stiff northerly breeze will kick up again too.
Not as warm, not as bright, but still dry.
Thursday morning will be our next chance of frost, away from the coast. We should still hit 60-ish in the afternoon, even though skies will become mostly cloudy.
The Extended Forecast
Our next storm system complex sweeps through New Jersey on Friday, and we'll probably get soaked. There are some question marks regarding 1.) how much rain falls, and 2.) how long it lingers. But I can tell you for sure — this one's wet, not wintry. (We do have to make that distinction now that "snow season" is here!)
The weekend is tricky, given the uncertainty surrounding Friday's storm. There could be some showers around. And model consensus points to another big cooldown settling in for Sunday — with some high temps potentially only in the 40s?
Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.