Nice weather returns to NJ, except for 12 to 18 hours of rain this weekend
The Bottom Line
As the cold, unsettled air mass relinquishes its grip on the Northeast, we’ll put the chilly and blustery weather in the rear-view mirror. There’s plenty of sunshine and 60s in the forecast over the next several days.
Having said that, the weekend is going to be 50/50, as a storm system will pass directly over New Jersey. We’ll see a period of steady to heavy rain, lasting about 12 to 18 hours. But that will be bookended by dry, pleasant conditions, salvaging a good part of the weekend in the end.
For the second morning in a row, it’s a chilly and even frosty start to the day. We’re back in jacket weather territory, with temperatures primarily between 35 and 40 degrees.
Friday will feature bright sunshine and dry weather, making for a nice April day. Especially since high temperatures will warm into the lower 60s - a full 10 degrees warmer than Thursday. You will feel a fresh breeze blowing from the west, up to 20 mph.
Friday night will not be as cold as the past two nights. We’ll bottom out in the lower to mid 40s, under partly cloudy skies. A frost/freeze is unlikely this time around.
The daytime hours look dry. Dare I say, great!
High temperatures will bump into the bump 60s across the state. Sunshine in the morning will transition to clouds in the afternoon.
Our next storm system will be an area of low pressure, tracking directly over New Jersey, from southwest to northeast.
Raindrops may start to bubble up from the southwest Saturday evening, possibly encroaching upon Salem County, New Jersey as early as 5 p.m. More likely, rain showers will spread northward into New Jersey between about 7 p.m. and 11 p.m.
The steadiest, heaviest rain will come overnight through early Sunday morning, between about 2 a.m. and 8 a.m.
Most model forecasts suggest a half-inch to an inch of total rainfall. There are a few solutions that go a little higher, in stripes where it really pours. I’d call such rainfall amounts “healthy,” but not really excessive. Flooding, severe weather, and wintry weather are not expected here.
It is going to be a wet start to the day. But showers should exit the coast by about Noon at the latest. As the storm system departs, substantial sunshine should break out Sunday afternoon. So it will turn into a nice day. Temperatures will bump up quickly once skies clear, topping out in the seasonable lower 60s.
Monday & Beyond
The nice thing about this weekend’s storm system is that it will not drag down a pool of colder air behind it. The latest guidance shows a brisk wind for Monday, potentially gusting to 30 mph. But models still show highs reaching the lower 60s, with sunny skies and dry weather.
Tuesday looks fan-freaking-tastic. Mostly sunny, dry weather, dry air, a light breeze, and lower 70s. A sea breeze will keep the Jersey Shore in the 60s.
Beyond that, the forecast gets a little muddled. I had previously favored flirting with 80+ degrees by Wednesday, keeping our weather primarily dry until next weekend. However, the latest GFS shows a backdoor front introducing some cooler marine air and possibly some showers. I’m not going to get too deep in the weeds analyzing the day 6 forecast. So we’ll just see how things continue to develop.
That’s it for today. Have yourself a merry little weekend!
Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.