Nothing says Jersey summertime more than heat, humidity, and thunderstorms. And, following a wonderful but brief heat wave respite on Monday, we fall right back into a steamy, stormy weather pattern again.

Your Tuesday morning is starting off just fine, with clear skies and comfortable, seasonable temperatures mainly in the 60s. The day looks mostly sunny, with some extra clouds in the afternoon. We are going to get hotter and more humid by Tuesday afternoon, with high temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. Some spots may kick off a new heat wave (three in a row is going to be touch, but it's possible).

Down the Shore, temperatures will be at least a little bit cooler, especially for barrier island beaches. A Moderate Risk of dangerous rip currents has been posted.

The NJ Department of Environmental Protection has issued a Code Orange Air Quality Alert for central and southern New Jersey on Tuesday. That means high concentrations of ground-level air pollution may become unhealthy for sensitive groups — that includes the very young, the very old, and those with heart or lung issues. If you fall into one of those categories, you might want to avoid strenuous outdoor activities during the heat of the day.

An Air Quality Alert (Code Orange) is posted for 11 counties in central and southern New Jersey on Tuesday.
An Air Quality Alert (Code Orange) is posted for 11 counties in central and southern New Jersey on Tuesday.

Isolated thunderstorms will probably start popping in the northwest corner of New Jersey late Tuesday afternoon, around 3 p.m. A round of scattered thunderstorms is likely between about 5 p.m. and 10 p.m., drifting from northwest to southeast. Given the heat and humidity in the atmosphere, these storms may be on the strong side. Heavy rain (localized 3+ inches) may lead to flooding issues Tuesday evening. Gusty winds are possible too, although the severe weather potential for this round of thunderstorms will be limited.

Tuesday's severe weather outlook puts most of NJ under a risk for non-severe thunderstorms. (NOAA / SPC)
Tuesday's severe weather outlook puts most of NJ under a risk for non-severe thunderstorms. (NOAA / SPC)

As storms exit to the southeast, we'll dry out Tuesday night. Low temperatures only fall into the sticky lower 70s.

Wednesday looks like a very steamy day, with most inland temperatures popping just above 90 degrees. (80s along the coast.) You'll see a mix of sun and clouds overhead. Rain chances are minimal, but we can't rule out a few isolated thundershowers. Best chance for a shower will be along the Delaware River in western NJ.

The 4th of July is rapidly approaching on Thursday, and the forecast looks better than it has been. Thanks to a light southeasterly breeze, blowing off the cooler ocean waters, temperatures will cool somewhat for Thursday (especially along the Jersey Shore). I'm seeing mid to upper 80s for most of the state. Clouds may win the sky for a majority of the holiday. And we'll also have a storm chance.

However, only a few showers and thunderstorms are modeled for late Thursday. They're now looking very much hit-or-miss — it's even fair to call Thursday a mainly dry weather day. Good news for holiday fireworks! But I am thinking some New Jerseyans could still get unlucky with an inconvenient period of wet and/or stormy weather.

Friday practically repeats Thursday's forecast. Sun, clouds, heat, humidity, and a thunderstorm chance. Highs again around the mid 80s for most of the Garden State.

Moving into the weekend, I fear Saturday could be the stormiest and the steamiest day of the week. As humidity surges to oppressive levels, high temperatures will once again push into the lower 90s for inland NJ. Yuck. In addition, yet another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms look to arrive Saturday afternoon. And, just like last Saturday, some of those storms could be pretty potent in our hot and humid air mass.

I'm favoring a dry forecast for Sunday and Monday, with continued warmth and slightly more comfortable humidity levels. Highs should be in the seasonable summery mid 80s.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.

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