A ‘nasty’ end to November: Rain, wind, thunderstorms, coastal flooding
The Bottom Line
A powerful weather system will make for a stormy, yucky, nasty day to close out November, with heavy rain, gusty winds, severe weather, and coastal flooding on the table. Additional showers and falling temperatures are expected Tuesday, to kick off December.
On Sunday, I published a comprehensive overview of Monday's powerful storm system and its stormy impacts on New Jersey. I'd recommend reviewing that for specific storm details, since the forecast has not changed much.
Here's a quick rundown of what to expect:
—RAIN... First raindrops 5 a.m. to 9 a.m. Steady to heavy rain is likely from 9 a.m. to 2 p.m. Tapering to scattered rain through about 6 p.m. Total rainfall will range from 0.50" to 1.50" for most of the state. Locally higher amounts are possible, and could lead to flash flooding issues.
—WIND... Gusty, blowing out of the south-southeast. Peaking around early afternoon. Gusts to 50 mph coast, 40 mph inland. A Wind Advisory covers Monmouth, Ocean, Atlantic, and Cape May counties from 6 a.m. to 6 p.m.
—SEVERE... Embedded thunderstorms may produce thunder and lightning and additional wind gusts. There is a non-zero chance of a tornado too.
—COAST... Up to 1 foot of surge along the Jersey Shore. 1 to 2 feet of water inundation possible in areas with a southern exposure — the Delaware Bay, coastal Cape May and Atlantic counties, and back bays farther north. (This is a factor of the wind direction and high tide timing.) Monday morning's high tide will be most precarious, followed by continued high water Monday evening and Tuesday morning.
—TEMPERATURE... We are definitely on the warm side of this storm. High temperatures on Monday will likely reach the lower to mid 60s across the state. That is only a few degrees shy of record highs for November 30th (lower 70s).
So flash flooding, tidal flooding, downed trees and branches, power outages, and holiday decorations blown across the state will make for an active, nasty day of weather indeed.
It will be a much calmer weather day, although the aforementioned storm system won't be quite done with New Jersey yet. A few showers are expected in the morning and midday hours, especially in the northern half of the state. Depending on the exact timing and temperature, a few inconsequential snowflakes are possible in the northwest corner of New Jersey.
Having said that, I'm confident we'll see some breaks of sun by late Tuesday. It will be breezy, and temperatures will slowly tumble. After a high around 50 in the morning, thermometers will descend through the 40s in the afternoon.
Wednesday & Thursday
We'll be back into frost/freeze territory by Wednesday morning, with forecast lows in the 30s. And it will be a chilly early December day, with highs in the mid 40s despite sun sunshine.
Thursday should push closer to 50 degrees, with early sunshine giving way to late-day clouds.
Friday & Beyond
Forecast models have been really wishy-washy about a potential storm system next weekend, in the Friday-Saturday-Sunday time frame. And that's still the case. The GFS paints rain over the Garden State on Friday, from a weak little development. The Euro model, however, shows nothing firing up over New Jersey. So what do we do when the forecast is hazy and unclear? Wait and see. We should have a clearer picture of any late-week storm system after Monday's storm clears out.