Wonderful Wednesday weather, turning unsettled again Thursday
I had several people tell me that Tuesday felt like fall. I can dig it! The breeze, the dry air, and the lower 70s. After all, typical mid-May temperatures are very similar to typical late September temperatures. If you liked Tuesday's weather, you're going to love Wednesday's forecast!
Wednesday morning is starting off pretty chilly, with a swath of 40s on the temperature map through the middle of the state. You might consider a jacket, sweater, or long-sleeved shirt to start the day.
By Wednesday afternoon, temperatures will reach the lower to mid 70s. Nice! Most of the day looks sunny, although I do expect clouds to start building by mid-afternoon. Winds will be considerably calmer than Tuesday, a light breeze out of the northwest at 10 to 15 mph.
It will remain dry and pleasant for Wednesday evening too. Clouds will continue to increase overnight.
Thursday looks unsettled, as a cold front approaches. I'm still thinking a few showers are possible in the morning. (Some model guidance even has raindrops lingering through midday.) More importantly, a round of thunderstorms is possible late-day Thursday. Several weather parameters are marginal, so there could be some localized downpours and gusty winds.
The Storm Prediction Center paints far NW NJ in an "Enhanced Risk" of severe weather on Thursday — the third highest of five severe threat levels. Honestly, given the scattered spread, marginal intensity, and late timing of the storms, that seems a little far-fetched to me.
In between those two rounds of potential rain on Thursday, we'll see mostly cloudy skies and you'll definitely feel some humidity. High temperatures should reach the mid to upper 70s.
On Friday, we flip back to mostly sunny skies and dry weather. It will be breezy to windy. Temperatures hold steady in the mid 70s — a decent weather day.
There's still a lot to like about the Memorial Day Weekend, with a couple of asterisks along the way.
Saturday looks seasonable and pleasant, with highs in the 70s and partly sunny skies. The day looks dry and breezy. Most of the state will enjoy another great Spring Day. But, with that breeze having an on-shore component, I still feel that the Jersey Shore will end up uncomfortably cool to start the holiday weekend. Stuck in the 60s maybe?
By Sunday, thermometers across the state will really start to cook as warm, humid air bubbles up from the south-southwest. Away from the coast, we'll top out around 85 to 90 degrees - almost hot! 80s are expected for Memorial Day Monday too.
The only really hiccup of the holiday weekend will be spotty showers and thunderstorms. The best chance for raindrops looks to be through the second half of the weekend. More specifically, I'm eyeing Saturday night-Sunday morning and Monday morning. As always, we'll put a finer point on those rain chances as the timeline gets a bit closer.
Enjoy the day!