Wednesday NJ weather: Another beauty, but steamy changes ahead
The Bottom Line
If you liked Tuesday's weather, you should like Wednesday's forecast too as humidity levels remain at bay. However, subtle changes will eventually lead to greyer weather on Thursday, followed by steamier and stormier weather Friday. Our next heat wave starts this weekend.
Compared to Tuesday, we'll see a few extra clouds overhead — let's call it partly sunny. Meanwhile, a shift in the wind direction from northerly to southeasterly will keep the beaches the cool spot in the. But that on-shore wind will eventually result in the return of humidity too.
High temperatures Wednesday will end up just shy of normal for the midpoint of July, generally in the lower 80s. Dew points will be in the lower 60s, leading to another (relatively) low humidity day.
Once again, the chance of a popup shower is not quite zero Wednesday afternoon. A few models plop a teeny tiny area of rain over SW NJ (Salem and Cumberland counties).
As skies become mostly cloudy, it won't be as pretty a weather day. The southeasterly breeze, up to 20 mph, might be refreshing. But it will also transport moisture into our atmosphere, leading to an increase in humidity levels. While the daytime hours look dry, a chance of showers will arrive Thursday evening. The latest guidance suggests that rain will not be widespread, steady, or long-term. Just a few raindrops creeping in from the northwest.
Who's ready to chew through the air and sweat your butt off again! High humidity will lead to a steamy and unsettled day. Sunshine will be very limited. And a few batches of showers and thunderstorms are likely throughout the daytime hours. The severe weather risk (wind, hail, tornado) will be low, and the day won't be a washout. High temperatures will bump back into the (seasonable) lower to mid 80s.
So far in 2020, the weather station at Newark Airport has recorded a total of ten 90+ degree days. I strongly suspect Saturday will be day #11, followed by #12 and #13 on Sunday and Monday.
Saturday will be hazy, hot, and humid with mostly sunny skies. I can't rule out a popup thunderstorm in the afternoon. High temperatures will end up near 90 degrees. The sea breeze should keep the coast cooler — I'm sure beaches will be popular throughout the weekend.
Yikes, even hotter. Some models are pushing temperatures into the mid 90s, especially for urbanized areas. Combined with high humidity (dew points around 70), the heat index could push north of 100 degrees — that's where we have to start calling the heat "dangerous".
The risk for popup thunderstorms will be slightly higher on Sunday than Saturday.
The Extended Forecast
90s on Monday will make it an "official" heat wave. Hopefully an evening cold front will offer some relief, in the form of clouds, some rain, and then slightly cooler air. I'm still seeing humid mid-upper 80s on Tuesday though. So I think we're stuck in a hot n' muggy weather pattern for the foreseeable future.
Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.