The Bottom Line
Monday was beautiful! The rest of the week, not so much.
A stalled frontal boundary will hover just southeast of New Jersey for the next three days. Areas of low pressure - little storm systems - will ride along that front. So we have to keep a persistent chance of showers in the forecast. If that front wiggles closer to the coast, we get wet. If it jiggles away, we don't.
That "wiggle factor" makes for a pretty uncertain forecast. Unfortunately, I can't give a definitive answer to the question posed in the headline. So instead, we'll look at the "chance" of rain. I just can't get more specific about raindrop timing and geography - other than to say it will be very limited.
Meanwhile, humidity levels remain comfortable. And because of the cloud cover and rain, high temperatures will stay well below normal for early August.
But if you're craving a return to summertime heat and humidity, you won't have to wait long. Our next heat wave will probably begin by the end of the upcoming weekend. And it will probably last through all of next week.
Clouds have returned. It's going to be mostly cloudy to overcast day, statewide. At the very least, you'll see a persistent layer of high clouds obscuring the sun throughout the day.
The best chance of showers and sprinkles will be in South Jersey and along the Jersey Shore, from about midday into Tuesday afternoon. The chance of convective activity, thunderstorms and severe weather, is very low - we're just looking at scattered raindrops (if that).
Meanwhile, high temperatures will only reach the upper 70s. This will be the 7th day in a row with widespread below-normal temperatures.
Tuesday night looks cloudy, but dry and comfortable. Low temperatures will dip into the lower to mid 60s. 50s are possible in the coolest corners of the state.
Very similar to Tuesday. The latest model forecasts, however, suggest rain chances will be even lower.
Look for substantial cloud cover and maybe a few coastal showers. High temperatures will once again only reach the upper 70s.
Dew points will push upward into the 60s. That's sticky, but not steamy. And that's about where humidity levels will stay through the rest of the week.
A day of change. And the forecast has changed too, for the better.
I was previously thinking Thursday would be our best chance of widespread rain. And we're not quite out of the woods for such an outcome, with one more batch of healthy showers and even thunderstorms possible. But the majority of model guidance continues to paint mainly dry weather across the state.
Eventually, skies will clear late-day Thursday. And as long as that happens in the afternoon, high temps will bump into the lower 80s. In other words, Thursday should turn into a nice day.
Back to more typical summertime weather. Friday looks great. Mostly sunny, dry, and seasonably warm. Highs pop into the mid 80s to close out the workweek.
The Extended Forecast
There are two questions surrounding the weekend forecast: How warm and how wet.
The GFS model shows a popup shower or thunderstorm on Saturday, and then a dry Sunday. High temperatures climb from upper 80s to lower 90s.
Meanwhile, the Euro model favors showers and thunderstorms on Sunday only. It's also the hotter solution, with highs in the lower 90s on Saturday and lower-mid 90s on Sunday.
We'll see how that plays out. One thing is for sure: Next week looks hot. We'll probably see an extended stretch of heat and humidity all week long. This heat wave (streak of 90+ degrees somewhere in NJ) will probably last 7 or 8 days total. Hope your air conditioners are ready for a workout!
Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.