The Bottom Line

Monday’s weather wasn’t terrible, although I was disappointed by the persistent cloud cover. Tuesday will be brighter. And breezier. Just as cool. And we’ll face our last widespread rain chance through early next week.

A slow warm-up is about to kick in too. We look forward to returning to the sweet, seasonable 70s by the end of the week.

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Tuesday

Both high and low temperatures are holding about 5 to 10 degrees below normal for mid-May. 40s Tuesday morning, then lower-mid 60s Tuesday afternoon.

I do expect a brighter day, with substantial sunshine mixed with clouds. That will be countered by a stiff west-northwest breeze. Wind gusts to 20 mph will be noticeable, but certainly not ferocious.

A weak wave will pass by New Jersey in the late afternoon to evening hours - surrounding the dinnertime hours. Depending on which model you believe, the spread of those showers range from “isolated” to “a few” to “scattered”. The difference largely has to do with how much moisture is in our atmosphere - it’s going to be very limited.

There’s even a chance for a little thunderstorm. An isolated downpour is possible. And possibly even small hail (ice balls) or graupel (snow pellets), similar to last Saturday.

By 10 p.m., any raindrops should be out of our hair. And then we’ll transition to mainly clear skies overnight. It will be an unseasonably chilly night, with most lows between 40 and 45 degrees. Some 30s and patchy frost are possible in the coldest corners of the state (NW NJ and the Pine Barrens).

Wednesday

Keep in mind, those cold nights and mornings are becoming more and more unusual as the season goes on. The Summer Solstice is only 40 days away, after all!

With lighter winds and mostly sunny skies, Wednesday will kickstart our slow warming trend. Highs should push into the mid 60s.

A storm system will pass just south of New Jersey on Wednesday too. I believe any and all rain will stay south of Cape May. But the system will throw some extra cloud cover toward southern New Jersey.

Thursday

Looks great, although still slightly below normal. Sunny skies. Dry weather. Highs in the upper 60s.

Friday

At long last, after a stretch of 9 consecutive below-normal days, thermometers should pop to 70 degrees (away from the immediate coast) on Friday. I’m obligated to profess my love for 70s - easily my favorite temperatures.

While the morning should be clear, clouds will probably build as the day goes on. The chance for rain isn’t zero, but it’s close. The GFS does paint an isolated shower chance late-day. But the chance is so slight, I’ve opted to leave it out of my “official” forecast for now.

The Extended Forecast

Through the upcoming weekend, we should see widespread 70s. Comfortably cool mornings. Nice, mild days with partly sunny skies. Excellent.

I wouldn’t rule out a spotty shower at some point either Saturday or Sunday. But just like Friday, I’m not overly concerned about anything widespread, prolonged, or heavy.

Early next week, however, is a different story. Our weather forecast turns considerably more unsettled starting on Monday. Long-range models are painting a low pressure system followed by a slow-moving front. That would lead to daily rain chances and cooler temperatures next week. Not the greatest news, but there’s still a lot of time for this forecast to evolve.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.

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