Still sweaty: A partial break from the heat Tuesday, but not the humidity
The Bottom Line
Temperatures near 90. Heat index near 100. Up to 7 inches of rain from a stagnant thunderstorm. New Jersey felt more like Florida on Monday. It's been a hot, wet July so far - a trend that will likely continue for the foreseeable future.
The star of this forecast continues to be humidity. Even as temperatures dial back a bit for more of the state on Tuesday, thanks to clouds, fog, and a light on-shore breeze, you're still going to sweat.
The chance for daily thunderstorms will continue too - although some days will be stormier than others (Wednesday and Friday).
This is going to be a "tale of two Jerseys" situation, with only part of the state getting a break from the extreme heat.
Across northern, central, and coastal New Jersey, areas of fog and abundant cloud cover will keep temperatures down Tuesday. We'll only top out around 75 to 80 degrees across most of the state. Decidedly below normal for mid-July. But the humidity is still going to be thick and uncomfortable.
The exception will be the area south of Interstate 195 and away from the coast, where sunshine wins out. That will allow the thermometer to spike to around 90 degrees Tuesday afternoon. Add in the humidity, and the heat index could be close to 100 once again.
A Heat Advisory continues for the Philly metro area until 8 p.m. Tuesday - on the Jersey side of the Delaware River, that includes northwestern Burlington, Camden, and Gloucester counties. Soupy and steamy, that's the name of the game.
We've also been watching a warm front draped over New Jersey. That was the impetus for Monday's stagnant, super soaker thunderstorms. That front actually lifts northward on Tuesday, meaning the greatest forcing for storms will also lift away from the Garden State. Therefore, I believe we'll only see one or two isolated thunderstorms pop Tuesday evening (after about 5 p.m.) There may be some pockets of heavy rain and gusty wind, especially to the north and west. But the risk for widespread storms actually appears low.
The rest of your Tuesday night will be mostly cloudy and steamy, with low temps around 70.
Technically a transition day, as a cold front races toward NJ from the west. However, don't expect a dramatic drop in temperatures or humidity. (More on that in a second.)
Wednesday will be partly sunny, hot, and humid all around. High temperatures will be 85 to 90 degrees away from the Jersey Shore.
A broken line of thunderstorms is likely after about 4 p.m. Wednesday. As I've said countless times over the last week, some big wind gusts and wicked lightning are possible. And with the ground so saturated, it wouldn't take much downpour action to cause flooding.
Drier weather and slightly drier air will prevail after 11 p.m. Wednesday night.
So the dew point will end up about 5 to 7 degrees lower on Thursday. Whoop-dee-doo. It does drop us out of the "tropical" zone to just "sticky" conditions.
Thursday does look rain-free - the only such dry day this week. With mostly sunny skies, it will still be a sultry summer day. It will be a sultry summer day with high temperatures near 90.
So much for that "cold front," huh?
The treat for spotty late-day thunderstorms will return Friday. With sun and clouds, temperatures will once again pop to around the 90 degree mark.
The Extended Forecast
Forecast confidence is still only low-to-medium for the weekend. I think you'll find some pockets of pleasant summer weather, especially through the first half of the weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms look to come into view from Saturday afternoon all the way through Sunday. No period of time there looks like a washout, but rain could dampen your outdoor plans.
High temperatures will descend from about 85 to 90 on Saturday to around 80 degrees on Sunday. An on-shore breeze should keep temps just below seasonal normals through early next week.
Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.