Our pattern of unsettled weather and on-again, off-again rainfall will continue for the foreseeable future. Will the rain affect the Memorial Day Weekend?

We're still staring down a pretty wet and grey forecast across the Garden State. But there will be points of brightness as the big holiday weekend approaches!

Wednesday: Wet then Dry

Wednesday is starting off rainy for the entire state, as a coastal storm system exits the East Coast. Umbrellas and windshield wipers will see heavy use, as New Jersey will continue to see bands of light to moderate rain through Wednesday morning's commute. Rainfall should taper off by about 10 a.m.

There will still be lots of clouds overhead for Wednesday afternoon, but maybe some peeks of sunshine too. Thanks to an on-shore flow (i.e. a wind blowing from the cool ocean), high temperatures will be limited to the 60s for most of the state. 70 degrees is possible for inland NJ, but even that is below normal for late May.

Coastal Concerns

Another impact of that easterly wind will be a coastal flooding threat. The current New Moon is causing some of the highest astronomical ("natural") tides of the year right now. Combine that with the on-shore flow, and we're looking at an extra foot or two of water pushing up against the coastline. That's enough to cause minor flooding of tidal waterways at high tide. Vulnerable (the "usual") areas may see flooding for several hours, and some lanes or entire roads may need to be closed.

A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for Wednesday evening's high tide cycle, which will occur around 7 to 8 p.m. along the oceanfront. Back bays may experience high tide up to 3 hours later.

You're probably not going to be diving into the chilly ocean. But just in case, the surf will be rough with wave heights up to 5 feet, with a moderate risk of rip currents.

Overhead, skies will be mostly cloudy Wednesday night, with comfortable low temperatures in the mid 50s.

Thursday: Another Rainy Day

Our next storm system isn't too far away, with the next round of raindrops pushing into SW NJ just after Midnight early Thursday morning. That rain will continue to spread northward by daybreak Thursday, making for another wet morning commute across the Garden State.

And Thursday as a whole looks wet, with persistent bands of rain making for yet another potential washout. Periods of heavy rain may lead to flooding, as our ground is already thoroughly saturated. Thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon, adding the danger of lightning to the heavy rain threat. It just looks like a wet, unpleasant day.

Clouds and rain will hold Thursday's high temperatures to the 60s.

Friday-Saturday: Moments of Brightness

Any residual showers should wrap up by the time you wake up Friday morning, and skies will quickly clear by lunchtime. Behind the storm system, winds are expected to shift from a northwesterly direction. Usually that would be a cooling wind. However, the loss of the marine influence and the return to sunshine will allow temps to soar Friday afternoon. Forecast highs bounce back to the mid 70s.

So Friday should turn into a very nice day, although I can't completely rule out a late-day shower based on the latest model trends.

The shining star of the Memorial Day Weekend continues to be Saturday. With partly sunny skies, dry weather, light winds, and high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s, there will be nothing to complain about!

The Rest of the Weekend: Iffy

It looks like predominant south-southwesterly winds for Sunday and Monday will fuel a warmup for the rest of the holiday weekend. Models suggest thermometers will climb to near 80 degrees on Sunday and lower to mid 80s on Memorial Day.

However, our precipitation forecast for the long weekend remains the same — rain will return to the skies of New Jersey from late Sunday into Monday. It doesn't look like a washout, by any means. But not a perfect forecast either.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.

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