More unsettled weather for NJ: When will it be wet, windy, and cool?
The Bottom Line
We've seen some real ups and downs in our weather world this week, both in terms of temperatures and precipitation. To an extent, that's what springtime is all about.
Wednesday turns unsettled again, with scattered rain in the morning and then a few showers and thunderstorms later on. It will not be a total washout.
We'll temporarily tap into high pressure on Thursday, leading to a nice weather day.
And then, one more complicated storm system will cause rain chances to ramp up again on Friday. Saturday in particular looks wet, windy, and cool. (I'm not going to sugar-coat this forecast — if you have outdoor plans for the first half of the weekend, you may want to consider backup plans.)
Hopefully, brighter skies and drier weather will arrive just in time for Mother's Day Sunday.
It's another rainy morning around the Garden State. As of this writing (6 a.m.), there's nothing heavy falling from the sky. Just some pockets of rain, especially over the middle third of NJ.
There's more back to the west, so we're going to see occasional rain throughout the state until about 10 a.m. Wednesday morning.
Then things will primarily dry out, from Wednesday midday through the afternoon. If we're lucky, the sun will poke out from beyond the clouds for a bit. That will help high temperatures into the mid to upper 60s on average. Not bad, just a hair below seasonal normals.
I do have to keep a rain chance in the forecast until about sunset. If an approaching front taps into a pocket of instability, we could see isolated to spotty showers and thunderstorms pop up. I do not expect anything severe or dangerous — there could be some localized downpours, with a fair bit of humidity in the air.
Wednesday night, we'll dry out and skies will start to clear. Overnight low temps will dip into the seasonably cool lower 50s by Thursday morning.
Squeezing out one really nice day, in the midst of murky skies through the rest of the week.
Thursday should feature plenty of solid sunshine, with some fair weather clouds along the way. The weather looks dry, and winds look light. High temperatures will pop to about 70 degrees for most of the state. With a sea breeze kicking in, the Jersey Shore will be the cool spot, in the 60s.
Turning not so nice. A slowly-progressing storm system will eventually push in from the southwest. So we'll see an increasing chance of rain as Friday goes on. I'm unclear on the exact start time. The GFS shows raindrops as early as 5 a.m. The Euro holds off the wet weather until later Friday until after 1 p.m. (And even later than that north of Interstate 78.) So there's a chance we have a dry (although cloudy) start to the day.
High temperatures will depend largely on the rainfall timing and cloud cover thickness. I think 60-ish is a good estimate for now.
Not nice at all.
No matter what happens with the rainfall timing on Friday, Saturday looks like an overall yucky day. Wet, windy, and cool.
We will probably see over an inch of rain total between Friday and Saturday. Top wind gusts could hit 35+ mph. And high temperatures on Saturday will be stuck in the lower 50s — almost 20 degrees below normal for early May.
At least we're not ringing alarm bells for severe thunderstorms or flooding. Just miserably wet weather.
Steady rain should come to an end by sunset Saturday, although some spotty showers and drizzle will likely hug the coast through Saturday night. Farther north, as skies start to clear, we may dip into the frost zone by Sunday morning.
Sunday (Mother's Day)
There's reason to be optimistic about our Mother's Day forecast. All models show completely dry weather after 5 a.m. Sunday. And skies should progress from clouds to sun as the day pushes on.
It will be breezy. And high temperatures will still be unseasonably cool, back to around the 60-degree mark. Plus, the ground will still be wet from the preceding days' rain.
The Extended Forecast
Following Friday-Saturday's soggy mess, we should dry out for an extended stretch. And I'd like to say we'll enjoy a big warmup next week too, into the 70s and even 80s.
However, we've put a warmup in the extended forecast twice over the past few weeks. And then we got completely burned with another burst of unseasonable chill. It is also important to note that the broad storm system affecting us late this week will hover over the western Atlantic Ocean for a few more days. That could keep an on-shore breeze on top of us, keeping temperatures surprisingly cool (especially near the coast).
So I'm not ready to buy into the "big warmup" scenario just yet. But I'll keep my fingers crossed. I am more than ready to hang up the jacket for the year, open up the windows, and enjoy some real springtime weather.
Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.