All those ‘cold and snowy NJ winter’ prophecies are total bull: Here’s why

Sigh, it's that time of year. For weeks, my social media feeds have been clogged by sensational headlines, warning of a brutal winter season ahead. Snow and ice! Cold and wind! Doom and gloom!

—Farmer’s Almanac says winter will be intense in New Jersey
—Farmers’ Almanac Predicts a Stormy Winter for New Jersey
—The Old Farmer’s Almanac’s NJ predictions for winter 2024
—Winter in NJ in 2024 will be snowy. Here’s where and when

The Farmers' Almanac and the Old Farmer's Almanac were published this summer. Each infamously claims to be able to accurately predict the weather many months and seasons in advance. For example:

Ohhhh, so it's going to snow in New Jersey this winter? That's not exactly breaking news. (Although it would be a departure from last year's dud of a winter.)

Do you buy the utility and accuracy of these infamous publications? I certainly don't — meteorologists have enough trouble forecasting the weather five days in advance, nevermind five months.

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Let me give you four more reasons why you should take this kind of forecasts with a very large grain of road salt.

1.) Methodology is Shrouded in Mystery

The Old Farmer's Almanac has been published since 1793. The Farmers' Almanac has been around since 1818.

Maybe their forecasts are based in some facet of science and research. Or maybe their forecasts come from a dartboard. We don't know. Neither are willing to share their exact methodology, so we don't really know why and how they come up with their winter outlooks.

Oh, you can get a tiny taste of their "weather formula," but only if you buy the book. Makes it really hard to trust such a "forecast".

2.) Poor Past Performance

It seems like the almanac prognosticators always predict a cold and snowy weather for the Northeast U.S. Don't believe me? Here you go:

—2022-23... The Farmers’ Almanac says NJ’s going to have a snowy winter
—2021-22... The Old Farmer’s Almanac says NJ is going to have a really cold winter
—2020-21... Farmers’ Almanac forecasts winter blast for New Jersey
—2019-20... One Farmer’s Almanac says wild winter for NJ
—2018-19... When to expect snow for winter 2018 in NJ
—2017-18... When the Farmer’s Almanac predicts snow for New Jersey
—2016-17... Farmer’s almanac predicts lots of cold, snow for New Jersey … when?
—2014-15... Farmers' Almanac predicts another nasty winter

As you may recall, both the winters of 2019-20 and 2022-23 were duds. Quiet and mild, with only one big snowstorm a piece. Did either almanac catch that?

Nope — and that poor performance does not bode well for this year's winter outlook.

Additionally, the almanac's daily forecasts are extraordinarily vague and rarely correct. Maybe they'll "nail" one storm each season. But as you know, weather happens 365+ days a year, not just once a season. They're the only "weather forecasters" in the world who can get away with calling for a "cold and snowy winter" and grading themselves with "80 to 90 percent accuracy". It's just not true.

3.) Seasonal Forecasting is Shaky

If you follow my forecasts and my weather blog regularly, you know I am not a fan of long-range/seasonal forecasting. Part of my angst is spurred by the fact that long-range forecasting is a niche area of expertise and useful only for a specific audience.

Generally such outlooks are broad, and not actionable by the general public. How would you react differently to a "snowy, cold" winter forecast, compared to a "rainy, mild" one? Probably no different.

I think some of my colleagues attempt to "stretch the science" in trying to provide too much detail, too much insight, and too much confidence in a winter/summer/hurricane season forecast. There are absolutely some well-documented signals and teleconnections out there: large-scale atmospheric circulations, ocean currents, ENSO, sunspot activity, etc. But how will they interact? How will they affect storm tracks? And rain-snow lines? How they will specifically affect accumulations and travel impacts in New Jersey? It is shaky science, at best.

4.) It Only Takes One

I am a big believer that it only takes a single major snowstorm to make for a memorable winter season. (The best example in recent history: The Blizzard of 2016.)

Therefore, I argue that a forecast for the entire winter season is kind of irrelevant.

The Bottom Line

The Farmers' Almanac and Old Farmer's Almanac are not scientific journals. They're not accountable to anyone for producing any sort of accurate forecast. It's fluff, and it's fun. If you love winter, feel free to preemptively get excited. If you hate winter, feel free to preemptively gripe.

Of course, if you're looking for an accurate weather forecast... You might want to look somewhere other than a 200+ year old book.

About a month from now — early November — "real" meteorologists will start to offer broad seasonal outlooks based on climatology (history), the ongoing El Nino, coming off a wet and cool summer, and those teleconnections I mentioned earlier. That is when you can get the shovels, salt, and sleds ready for the season.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow Dan on Facebook for your latest weather forecast updates.