My head is admittedly spinning a little bit after putting together the forecast this morning. There are some pretty significant changes in the medium-range forecast (Friday), and Wednesday's rain and temps are a bit of a challenge as well. Let's get into it...

Wednesday morning is starting off much cooler and more comfortable than Tuesday did — temps are about 10 degrees cooler. There's still a hint of mugginess in the air, and that will be the case throughout the day. (That will be especially in the southern third of New Jersey.) It will be a nice partly sunny morning, before clouds increase steadily through Wednesday afternoon. Most high temperatures will peak in the lower to mid 80s, closer to normal for mid-to-late June. Along the Jersey Shore, we'll see highs in the 70s.

NAM model forecast shows the heaviest rain and strongest thunderstorms will hold off until Wednesday night. (Tropical Tidbits)
NAM model forecast shows the heaviest rain and strongest thunderstorms will hold off until Wednesday night. (Tropical Tidbits)

The latest model guidance suggests an isolated popup shower is possible at any point starting Wednesday afternoon. However, I'm still thinking the vast majority of the state will stay dry through Wednesday evening. Ultimately, after about 7 p.m., the probability for showers and thunderstorms goes from "slight chance" to "likely". Pockets of steady to heavy rain are possible, especially in South Jersey where the air will be most "juicy". With precipitable water values over 2" and potential rainfall over 1" in spots, we could see some localized flooding issues overnight through the Thursday morning commute.

The Summer Solstice officially occurs at 6:07 a.m. Thursday — that marks the point in Earth's orbit where the Northern Hemisphere is tilted 23.5 degrees toward the Sun. The longest day of the year, we'll get 15+ hours of daylight!

And the first day of Summer looks like a real weather winner! Any lingering showers, sprinkles, and/or fog should exit Thursday morning, with mostly sunny skies developing through the rest of the day. It will be nice and warm, with most highs in the lower 80s. And we'll get a fresh 20 mph breeze to keep that warm air moving around.

The biggest change to this forecast comes on Friday. Imagine my surprise to find my "pleasant carbon-copy of Thursday" I had promised has become an "increasing chance of rain". Skies will become mostly cloudy on Friday, with cooler high temperatures in the mid 70s.

But I'm not totally convinced of this wet forecast for Friday. It's kind of a coin flip forecast right now, with the GFS model leaning wet, and the NAM and Euro models leaning drier (but still cloudy with spot showers). So I've opted to include the chance for rain in the forecast, while model solutions continue to evolve.

Saturday, on the other hand, has been trending wet all week so far. Some of my colleagues in the meteorological arts have suggested a total washout of a day — I'm not convinced that's the case. I'm leaning toward a few showers in the morning, and then a few more showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Breaks of sunshine in the middle should help high temps into the 80s.

Sunday looks like the drier day of the weekend, but a few showers and spot storms are still absolutely possible. Partly sunny skies, upper 80s and increased humidity for make a summery day in between the raindrops.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.

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