Tuesday NJ weather: When will the wind finally simmer down?
The Bottom Line
In talking to my friends and family, everyone is in agreement that this Spring has been 1.) cool, and 2.) windy. And they're right! In the 50 days since the Vernal Equinox on March 20, 25 days have seen below-normal daily average temperatures. Plus, very few of the other 25 days have been truly "warm".
This weekend's storm system is spinning about 350 miles southeast of the Jersey Shore. Far enough away that clouds and rain chances are minimal. But that strong area of low pressure is close enough to provide one more day of wind. And those gusts are especially impactful along the Jersey Shore.
For inland New Jersey, we have bright, dry, warming weather ahead for the rest of the week. Our next chance of widespread rain won't come until the weekend.
Our big weather nuisance for Tuesday will be breezy to gusty conditions. As of this writing (6 a.m.), gusts are still holding over 30 mph along the Jersey Shore. The northeast wind will be considerably lighter — although still noticeable — away from the oceanfront.
We're starting the day with sunshine and temperatures in the 40s and 50s. You'll most likely want to grab a jacket, especially with the wind.
Other than some passing clouds and a slight sprinkle chance along the southern coast, it will be a bright, dry, pleasant day. Most of the state will see highs between 65 and 70 degrees. Close to the oceanfront (approximately east of the Garden State Parkway), we'll be stuck in the cool 50s.
The coastal flooding picture has gotten better too. Spots of minor flooding may still occur along tidal waterways. Specifically, along back bays and tributaries that have not been able to fully drain since late last week.
Tuesday night will be quiet and uneventful. Clear skies will meet cool temperatures, dipping into the 40s.
At long last, the wind will lighten up. It may still be breezy Wednesday morning, especially along the coast. But wind speeds should reduce to about 10 to 15 mph as the day gets going.
With that in mind, it should be a nice Spring day, with sun and clouds. High temperatures will push into the upper 60s to around 70 degrees, away from the coast.
A subtle wind direction shift and additional cloud cover are in the forecast. But that will have little impact on temperatures or the overall pleasant "feel" to the day. Look for highs near 70 degrees, under partly to mostly cloudy skies.
Clouds will take over the sky again on Friday. And that will keep temperatures a few degrees cooler, in the upper 60s or so. I've also included a "just in case" chance of a shower, given the more unsettled sky. But there's no great forcing for significant precipitation.
The Weekend & Beyond
Two items of note this weekend, leading to New Jersey's next chances for widespread rain.
The first is the resurgence of that pesky coastal storm system. Yeah, as it churns northward again, it's going to spit some scattered rain toward New Jersey on Saturday. It could be steady to heavy at times. But I do not see an all-day, soggy, sloppy mess like last Saturday. As long as we get some break in the cloud cover, temperatures should push to 70 or better with a southerly wind.
On Sunday, we get "attacked" from the other direction. A cold front will slide in showers and thunderstorms. It will also give that coastal low a healthy "shove" out to sea. Current model guidance shows the best chance of rain to arrive late on Sunday. So the first part of the day looks good, with highs well into the 70s.
Monday is currently trending warm and stormy too. And then we should enter a pattern of seasonable weather — 70s or better —heading into the second half of May.
Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.