The Bottom Line

Arctic air has returned to the Garden State. But it's only going to be here for a day before temperatures soar.

We'll enjoy one day of warmth, before temperatures tumble again.

Other than ping-ponging temperatures, our weather forecast is quite quiet. Our next threat of a substantial storm system and chance of rain/snow is at least a week away.

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Tuesday

Top wind gusts in New Jersey overnight topped 40 mph, as colder air "whooshed" back in. It's a blustery and bitter morning, with temperatures between the mid teens (north) and lower 30s (south). Add in the continuing brisk wind, and the wind chill ("feels like" or "apparent" temperature) is in the teens for much of the state. Back to bundling up!

The wind will slowly calm as the day goes on, progressing from the "gusty" category Tuesday morning to just "breezy" Tuesday afternoon. High temperatures will only reach the mid 30s, about 10 degrees below normal for this time of year. At least skies will be mostly sunny.

Temperatures won't drop as fast or as hard Tuesday night. With much calmer winds and clear skies, we'll bottom out in the upper 20s. A freeze is likely away from urban and coastal areas.

Wednesday

In a word, fantastic! Wednesday really looks like a beautiful early March day. But as I mentioned earlier, it only lasts a day. Mother Nature, you're such a tease.

Sunny, dry, and mild. Highs soar into the lower 50s. That is about 5 degrees above seasonal normals. Enjoy!

Thursday

A weak cold front will introduce cooler air again. But it won't be a rightful "arctic blast" with the nosediving temperatures and ferocious wind. (Some model guidance suggests some sprinkles in the early morning hours, but nothing to write home about.)

Thermometers will only reach the lower 40s Thursday. Not terrible. It will be breezy (10 to 20 mph), with passing clouds.

Friday

Sunny, but pretty cold. Highs will struggle to hit 40 degrees.

The Extended Forecast

A warmup will kick-in this weekend, as quiet weather continues. Clouds and lower 40s on Saturday. Sun and upper 40s on Sunday.

More sustained warmth looks to build in the long-range forecast, with 60s a possibility by the middle of next week.

As for our next storm system? I dunno. The Euro puts some rain over New Jersey on Thursday 3/11. The GFS makes Monday 3/15 wet. That's over a week away! Rather unusual to have such dormant weather in March — but we'll happily take it.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.

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