The Bottom Line

Just like Wednesday, we'll battle pockets of dense fog Thursday morning. And just like Wednesday, the sun will come out leading to a beautiful afternoon. Enjoy the quiet, mild weather while it lasts, because our forecast turns more active and tumultuous through the end of the month.

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Thursday

Fog, fog, fog. From what I can see on our visibility sensors and traffic cameras across the state, Thursday morning's fog is not as widespread as Wednesday's, but it is thicker. So you may drive in and out of clouds on your AM commute — just be alert.

Conditions should improve around the 10 o'clock hour. And then the sun will break out (at least partially) Thursday afternoon. It's going to be another mild and somewhat sticky day. Morning lows in the lower 60s. Afternoon highs in the mid 70s — a degree or two warmer than Wednesday. (I scaled that high temperature number downward a few degrees, based on model trends and temperature trends over the last 24 hours.)

Thursday night will stay on the mild side, with fog likely again. We'll see lows around 60 degrees, with partly cloudy skies.

Friday

A shift in the wind will lead to a noticeable change in our weather. Although it's not a dramatic, seismic shift.

A light southeasterly breeze coming off the cool, humid ocean will have three impacts on the Garden State throughout Friday:
1.) Skies will be mostly cloudy to overcast.
2.) A few sprinkles will probably traverse the state around midday.
3.) Temperatures will be slightly cooler, in the upper 60s (coast) to lower 70s (inland).

It's important to note that those temperatures are still warmer than the norm for last October. So the day isn't a total washout, nor a total loss.

Saturday

The weekend should start OK, with partly sunny skies and high temperatures pushing to the lower 70s by lunchtime. However, the timing of an approaching cold front has shifted earlier. So we face breezy conditions and a few showers as early as Saturday afternoon. (That front is moisture-starved, so don't expect that much rain here.)

Sunday

A cooler, drier air mass will settle over New Jersey on Sunday, marking a sudden return to "jacket weather" across the state. Morning lows will dip into the 40s for most — 30s and frost will be possible in NW NJ. Afternoon high temperatures will only reach the mid 50s. So within a day, we swing from 10 degrees above normal, to 10 degrees below normal. And my current forecast numbers would make Sunday our coldest day since May 9th.

In addition to a refreshed November-ish chill in the air, Sunday looks cloudy and showery. Again, not a total washout. But model guidance has been pretty consistent about rain chances for part of the day.

Monday & Beyond

Any shower activity should wrap up Monday morning, and then it looks like we'll squeeze out a day and a half of nice weather. High temperature for both Monday and Tuesday will reach for the upper 60s to (maybe) lower 70s.

The next cold front down the line will be the doozy, dragging a line of heavier rain through the state, followed by colder air. By Halloween (10/31), our weather should calm down, but we could be looking at daily frosts/freezes in the morning and only 50s at best in the afternoons.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.

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