Thursday NJ weather: Clouds return, thanks to the remnants of T.S. Beta
The Bottom Line
After something like a week and a half of crystal clear skies and fair weather, you will notice a difference on Thursday. Clouds return, and we could see some (limited) raindrops too. But in general, the forecast through the weekend will feature decent, mild weather. Our next substantial rain chance looks to hold off until late Sunday night.
Clouds are already streaming into New Jersey's sky Thursday morning. There are two weather-makers in play here — a weak little wave approaching from the west, and the remnants of Tropical Storm Beta which will pass well to our south. The result will be not only cloud cover, but also a few sprinkles and showers and a subtle increase in humidity.
Thursday's rain chance will be limited to a few sprinkles, if that. Our air and atmosphere is still pretty dry, and wouldn't sustain much raindrop activity at the ground.
High temperatures should push to about 75 to 80 degrees Thursday afternoon. Slightly cooler than Wednesday. But slightly above late September normals.
One more piece of good news: The ocean is calming down. After several days of rough surf and high water, the rip current risk slides down to "Moderate" for the Jersey Shore. Ocean wave heights only 2 to 3 feet. The coastal flooding threat is also over.
Depending on the exact track and orientation of Beta's remnants, we'll hopefully break into sunshine across northern New Jersey on Friday. However, South Jersey will be stuck under the clouds. And a shower is possible too, especially in the afternoon and evening hours. (But again, nothing big.)
High temperatures will range from the mid 70s (south) to around 80 (north-central). Again, nice and mild.
One more batch of showers is modeled for Saturday morning. And this one could impact the entire state. There are no indications that steady, heavy, severe, or convective rain is going to happen here. Just a potentially damp and/or grey start to the weekend.
By Saturday afternoon (at the latest), we should clear to partly sunny skies and pleasant conditions. High temperatures in the mid 70s on Saturday will be quite delightful.
And Sunday looks good too — although definitely warm and summerlike. Highs in the lower 80s will be about 10 degrees above normal. A mix of sun and clouds will meet dry weather during the daytime hours.
An approaching cold front will likely fire off one or two rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms Monday. At the moment, forecast models show that rain falling in the 1.) early morning and 2.) late evening hours. With dew points in the 60s, and high temperatures approaching 80 again, there could be some rumbles of thunder along the way. And behind the last batch of rain, it will get breezy — that's the door to cooler air opening once again.
The Extended Forecast
A cooldown and dry down kicks in Tuesday, as high temps come down the lower 70s. That's seasonable though. And with partly to mostly sunny skies, we should squeeze out a pleasant day Tuesday.
However, another frontal passage on Wednesday will spark another round of showers, a brisk wind, and a cooldown. The forecast gets a little muddled that far out, but I suspect temperatures will struggle to reach 70 degrees through the first few days of October.
Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.