NJ weather: Two big pushes of rain and thunderstorms ahead
The Bottom Line
Umbrellas up again! Rainfall this week will range from April showers to springtime soakers. Along the two big pushes of rain over the next four days, we'll also contend with persistent cloud cover and consistently cool temperatures.
Soaking rain would be a good thing, as we are running a rainfall deficit on the year. About a quarter of New Jersey - to the south - is still classified as being in "Moderate Drought".
Now, if you're looking for a spring-tastic warmup, you'll like the forecast for next week. I think we're about 5 or 6 days away from our next big warmup. Thermometers will probably push past 70 degrees again as we approach the midpoint of April.
Turning increasingly unsettled and wet.
It is a cool April morning, with temperatures mainly in the 30s. (There is even a swath of light freezing temperatures across inland New Jersey.) Closer to the coast, we start your Tuesday in the 40s.
Baseline, it will be mostly cloudy and cool. High temperatures will be similar to Monday, around 50 to 55 degrees. That is slightly below normal for early April.
In addition, rain chances will increase as a warm front approaches from the southwest. Spotty rain showers will bubble up from the south starting around mid-morning. So the best chance of raindrops during the daytime hours will be across the southern half of the state. But don't expect much - just some light rain and damp weather.
Tuesday night, we all get soaked. At least a few hours of steady to heavy rain will likely impact the entire state overnight (centered around Midnight). There could be some ponding issues and big puddles. Low temperatures will only dip a few degrees, into the upper 40s.
We'll probably still have some rain around for the Wednesday morning commute. But by mid-morning, rain showers should exit, and the rest of your Wednesday looks fine.
It will be cloudy and calm, with seasonable high temperatures in the mid 50s. Plenty of opportunity for outdoor activities once we dry out.
Our next storm system will approach from the west on Thursday. And throughout the daytime hours, we'll see waves of scattered showers and thunderstorms roll through the Garden State.
This round of rain does look a bit more convective - hence the chance for thunder and lightning. There could be some embedded downpours there too, as our atmosphere taps into some richer moisture.
Highs on Thursday will again hit mid 50s. 60 is a possibility if we see a peek of sun at some point.
I am cautiously optimistic that Friday will be a mainly dry day. Our only opportunity for rain would be a stray late-day shower chance.
Partly sunny, breezy, and near 60. Sounds nice.
The Extended Forecast
I'm going for a dry forecast for the second weekend of April. With mixed sun and clouds and highs in the 50s, it should also be pleasant. (Although possibly "jacket weather," depending on cloud cover and wind speed.)
Our next big warmup should kick in next week. Monday will make a run for 60s at least. Our weather will turn much less unsettled too, with minimal rain chances.
Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.