Mother Nature is feeling a bit temperamental this week, as several storm systems will provide several chances of rain through the end of the Memorial Day Weekend.

Dry Wet Dry Wet Dry 20170523

Here are your weather headlines for Tuesday, May 23, 2017...


Monday's weather featured the first of four storm systems to impact New Jersey this week (through the end of the Memorial Day Weekend). And it was certainly a wet day, with record daily rainfall at Atlantic City. That means, with 1.85 inches of rainfall between Midnight and Midnight, it was the rainiest May 22 on history at ACY, smashing the previous record of 1.19 inches set in 1909.

We are indeed going to flip-flop between periods of wet and dry weather in the coming days. I'm pleased to see our forecast models coming into better alignment with each other, but there's still an uncomfortable about of uncertainty surrounding this forecast. I'm going to try to piece together the details for you, but be prepared for last-minute adjustments as the weather actually plays out.

Weather Timeline

I think it's worthwhile to try to put together an hour-by-hour timeline of the "wet vs. dry" forecast over the coming days. (Keep in mind, confidence remains shaky, so this should be treated as a rough guideline of what to expect.) Hopefully it's helpful as you plan your week.

Through Tuesday 3 p.m... DRY... Morning fog will burn off quickly, leading to mostly cloudy skies all day. Even though the sky will be grey, temperatures will be fairly mild in the lower 70s (60s at the beach). Raindrops should hold off until mid-to-late afternoon, at the earliest.

Tuesday 3 p.m. to Wednesday 9 a.m... PARTIALLY WET... Models finally converged nicely on this close-call storm system, which now looks to provide a glancing blow to New Jersey Tuesday evening. Not everyone in the Garden State will see rain from this one — the further south and east you are, the more likely you'll be to feel raindrops. More specifically, the rain-no rain line will probably set up in the neighborhood of Mercer and Monmouth counties. South of that, it'll be a wet night. North of that, mostly dry.

Wednesday 9 a.m. to Thursday 2 a.m... DRY... As the coastal storm system pulls away from New Jersey, showers will end along the coast by mid-morning. As we dry out, I think the sun will make a cameo appearance by Wednesday afternoon. That will help high temperatures return to the lower to mid 70s (away from the ocean).

Thursday 2 a.m. to Friday 11 a.m... VERY WET... Yet another storm system looms in the forecast, and this one looks to be a direct hit for New Jersey. So Thursday looks quite rainy — maybe a total washout. Bands of heavy rain may lead to flooding concerns, especially since the ground will be saturated from previous batches of rain.

Friday 11 a.m. to Saturday... DRY... As Thursday's storm system moves away, skies will clear to sunshine. Friday looks like a breezy but mild day, with thermometers climbing into the mid to upper 70s. Saturday looks even better and even warmer, with highs in the mid to upper 70s under partly sunny skies.

The Memorial Day Weekend

The big "unofficial start to summer" is right on the edge of the medium-range forecast, and the picture is becoming clearer. While there will be moments of brightness with wonderfully pleasant temperatures, there will be some rain over the holiday weekend too.

I think it's too soon for a detailed Memorial Day Weekend forecast, a few things are becoming clear:
--I've been saying it since last week — Saturday looks like the winner of the weekend.
--Sunday looks to start off sunny and warm, close to 80 degrees.
--Scattered clouds and rain enter the forecast late Sunday.
--Temperatures will cool from late Sunday into Monday, as scattered showers remain possible.

Again, hopefully that gives you a general idea of what to expect. As usual, we'll be able to add more details regarding timing and impacts as the week presses on.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.

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