NJ weather: Rain showers Friday, then chilly and dry this weekend
Hey, congratulations — we made it to Friday! There are a few "flip flops" to talk about in this weather forecast. From wet to dry to wet. And from cool to cold to mild.
Your Friday morning is starting with chilly temperatures ranging from the upper 20s in NW NJ to mid 30s along the southern Jersey Shore. Temperatures Friday afternoon won't be too bad — seasonable for early December, in fact. Our latest forecast puts high temperatures ranging from about 40 degrees in North Jersey to around 50 degrees in South Jersey.
We'll start Friday with pops of sunshine and blue sky. As a clipper system passes well to our north, clouds will thicken up again by midday as the attached cold front approaches the Garden State. It will be breezy at times, with possible gusts over 20 mph.
A round of showers is likely Friday too. Here are some bullet points:
1.) These showers are going to be scattered, light and brief. Hardly worthy of bullet points!
2.) The timing of these raindrops is now forecast a bit later than I had promoted earlier this week. First raindrops to the northwest around mid-afternoon (3 p.m.) Last splash along the south coast around mid-evening (9 p.m.)
3.) Rainfall totals will be very light — a few hundredths of an inch, at the most.
4.) No fear of wintry weather here. The chance for a few snowflakes amongst the hilltops of North Jersey is not quite zero, but it's close.
Skies will clear out within an hour or two of those showers and sprinkles passing through. A quick burst of wind will usher in some colder air — yes, we will be bundling up again to start the weekend!
By Saturday morning, thermometers will dip into the upper 20s to lower 30s. Pretty typical for early December, actually. However, thermometers will get stuck in the mid to upper 30s at best Saturday afternoon. (Maybe a few 40s to the south and east.) That would be a typical mid-winter kind of day.
At least Saturday will be sunny, calm, and dry.
Sunday looks slightly warmer, as temps recover to the mid 40s or so. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy. It will be another dry day.
Monday, however, not dry. Our next storm system complex will arrive Monday morning. Luckily, it will carry warmer air into New Jersey too. So, with highs in the 50s, we're just talking about plain rain. It's going to be a pretty soggy day.
Following a potential break in the rainfall Monday night into Tuesday morning, rain will resume for most of Tuesday too. Models are showing high temperatures spiking to near 60 degrees around midday Tuesday.
Behind the rain will come a strong cold front. Wednesday turns blustery and colder, with high temperatures in the upper 30s to around 40 degrees. (That estimation is subject to change as we better sample the cold air mass set to arrive.)
This cold dome of high pressure will sit right on top of New Jersey on Thursday, leading to morning low temps in the 20s and highs only in the 30s.
Both the GFS and Euro models show a rainy storm system arriving for next weekend, and then a threat for something wintry the following week. Such long-range forecasts are generally highly uncertain — just know that we're always scanning the horizon for New Jersey's next weathermaker.
Have yourself a merry little weekend! I'm taking an extended weekend and will be back in the weather center on Tuesday.