NJ weather: One mild day, one rainy day, one wintry day, then Spring
The Bottom Line
The final few days of Winter will feature quite a range of weather conditions. First you’ll need an umbrella. Then the winter coat. And then sunglasses, as sunshine and seasonable temperatures take over just in time for the start of Spring.
We’re now standing at about 24 hours of sprinkles and flurries. (There were a few isolated pockets of heavier rain around Tuesday evening too.) Our weather is still “blah” to start Wednesday, although it’s going to turn into a decent mid-March day overall.
Sprinkles and light fog are hanging around, especially in southern and coastal New Jersey. By the 10 a.m. hour, drier conditions should prevail. Only peeks of sun are expected into Wednesday afternoon. But it will be about 10 degrees warmer than Tuesday, with highs close to 50 degrees.
The quiet, calm, mostly cloudy conditions will continue Wednesday night. With a touch of humidity in the air, temperatures only fall a little bit overnight, to around 40 degrees.
As of this writing, the Deep South (Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama) are bracing for a significant severe weather outbreak. That storm system will swing toward New Jersey on Thursday.
Umbrellas up, we are going to get wet. Steady rain is expected pretty much all day Thursday - at least from mid-morning through early evening. There could even be some rumbles of thunder. High temperatures will push into the lower 50s.
As the sun sets Thursday evening, a gusty north wind will kick up. Top gusts will probably reach 40 mph overnight. That wind will carry in colder air, causing temperatures to tumble.
The last full day of winter looks quite wintry, in terms of weather and temperature.
The early morning hours will be a battle between the aforementioned storm system exiting and temperatures dropping toward the freezing mark. And we do a legitimate shot of a quick hit of snow and/or wintry hit Friday morning, spreading from northwest to southeast at the tail end of this thing. Let’s say between 2 a.m. and 10 a.m.
Some forecast models are showing some bull-ish snow and ice accumulations here, on the order of a few minutes. I have a very hard time believing much (if any) snow will stick and accumulate, given the wet/warm ground, barely below-freezing temperatures, and sun angle.
Still, I am concerned about the Friday morning commute. In any given location, the chance for snow/mix will be brief. But there could be some traction and visibility issues.
The rest of Friday will stay windy and cold, as skies clear. But take joy in knowing the blustery weather is temporary, only lasting one day.
The Weekend & Beyond
The Vernal Equinox, the official start of Spring, occurs at 5:37 a.m. Saturday. And Mother Nature will promptly “flip the switch” to warmer, brighter weather right on schedule.
Sunny and near 50 on Saturday. Sunny and mid 50s Sunday and Monday. Completely dry weather and light winds will add to the pleasantry. The only hiccup will be a prominent sea breeze, keeping NJ’s coastal communities several degrees cooler.
I have scaled back my expectations of “widespread 60s” next week. But even 50s are above-normal and pleasant. We’ll probably reach for the umbrella again, with a few shots of rain showers mid-week and late-week.
I have to admit, after Friday, our weather takes a decidedly “spring-y” turn. I can’t say we’re done with freezes and snowflakes yet. But the risk for a big winter storm seems very low through the rest of March.
Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.