The Bottom Line

Friday will be the day number 5 of 8 of this warm stretch. Moving into the first weekend of November, we're talking about temperatures in the 70s. That is 15 to 20 degrees above normal for this time of year. Soak it in!

Record high temperatures range between 76 and 80 degrees these days, depending on the day and location.

The big cooldown arrives late Monday, as a cold front arrives. Tuesday turns about 20 degrees colder. However, while a frontal boundary usually means a period of rain, New Jersey's forecast looks very dry through late next week.

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Temperatures are going up. And so are dew points a.k.a. humidity levels. That means we have not only warm days coming up, but also mild overnights. And some fog too.

We are starting Friday with reduced visibility due to fog, especially around the southern half of the state. The "fog-o-meter" is down to a quarter-mile in spots, which is when we start ringing fog alarm bells. (Or the foghorn, I guess.)

The fog and low clouds situation should largely start to improve around the 9 and 10 o'clock hours.

And then this afternoon will be mostly sunny. And nice and warm. We'll go from chilly 30s and 40s in the morning, to around 70 degrees later on.

I expect fog to be even more of a widespread problem Friday night, as humidity continues to rise. We will see clouds increase overnight. And fairly mild temperatures, not falling below the mid 50s. (Keep in mind normal lows for early November are close to 40 degrees.)


Driven by southerly winds, temperatures will shoot into the mid 70s for most of the state Saturday afternoon. (It will be a bit cooler in northwestern New Jersey and along the Jersey Shore.)

We'll see mixed periods of sunshine and clouds. It may be breezy at times. And, although some models push in some sprinkles, I think it will be another dry day for the Garden State.


Despite more cloud cover. And a slight chance of a shower (mainly early and late). We'll hold onto warm, near-record temperatures. Look for highs again in the mid 70s.


The warmest day of the stretch. But also a day of transition, as a cold front sweeps in from the west.

I believe that frontal boundary will hold off until the afternoon for most of the state. That will allow high temperatures to potentially reach the upper 70s (for all but NW NJ). 80 degrees is a possibility - wow!

I also believe the front will be moisture-starved and dry. So I'm leaning toward a rain-free forecast for Monday. That's not a guarantee, but any raindrops would be very limited.

Conditions will turn breezy and cooler through Monday evening. Temperatures won't necessarily "tumble" — it will be a gentle decline into the 40s by Tuesday morning.

The Extended Forecast

Election Day Tuesday will be much more November-ish. High temperatures will retreat to the upper 50s to around 60 degrees. We should see sunshine resume at least. So it looks like a nice November day, as long as it's not too breezy.

Wednesday morning will probably be our next widespread frost/freeze, as most low temperatures end up in the 30s. Once again, highs will be limited to the 50s. But a warming trend should take over Thursday, pushing thermometers back into the 60s.

Our next storm system shows up in the forecast models for late next week, around Friday-Saturday. A period of soaking rain is looking good, with several inches of rainfall possible. That will be the next big thing to keep an eye on.

Programming Note

I am taking off on vacation next week, so the CMDZ Weather Blog will be on hiatus. Our weather page will temporarily transition to "vacation mode," since I will not be available to regularly curate it. Of course, if any significant or dangerous weather enters the forecast, our team is ready to cover it from top to bottom, from start to end.

Have a great week — see you dark n' early on Monday 11/14!

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.

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