NJ weather: Extended period of soaking rain arrives late Thursday
I am getting pretty sick of this wet, cool weather trend. Sigh. No change in sight, unfortunately, as we face below-normal temperatures and a daily rain chance through at least early next week. Having said that, as usual, I'm going to try to accentuate the positive, any stretches of dry weather we'll enjoy along the way.
Thursday morning is chilly and frosty across the Garden State. Temperatures range from the 20s in NW NJ to the 40s along the coast. Most of the state has dipped into the freeze/frost zone in the 30s. We'll only top out in the 50s Thursday afternoon — that's lower 50s to the north, upper 50s to the south.
Skies will be mostly cloudy to overcast throughout the day. And a few rain showers moving ahead of our next storm system will impact the state too. You can probably skip the umbrella — the rain that falls during the day Thursday should stay widely scattered and light.
Starting Thursday late afternoon, steady rain will begin bubbling up from the southwest. So Thursday evening will become wetter and wetter, as rainfall intensity peaks just after Midnight.
We're really going to get soaked here. And there may be a few rumbles of thunder, especially in the (warmer) southern half of the state. However, the threat for severe weather and/or big wind is going to be low this time around. Just rain. Although when/where it really pours, there could be some minor ponding or flooding issues on area roadways.
Amidst the raindrops and thick clouds, temperatures Thursday night will only dip a few degrees. We'll bottom out in the upper 40s or so.
Friday looks wet too. I know I had been foolishly optimistic we'd see some sunshine late-day, but models are all lining up for sustained wet weather. I don't think it will be a total washout, as our rain becomes more scattered (breaks apart a bit). So, there will be some dry pockets throughout the day. Still not very pretty. High temperatures Friday afternoon will once again be stuck in the 50s. (60s are a possibility across interior South Jersey, if we can tap into a pocket of warmer air.)
So there's a good chance we'll have rain falling over New Jersey from about 4 p.m. Thursday through 10 p.m. Friday. By the time this storm system crawls away Friday evening, rainfall totals will range from just under an inch (far northern NJ) to just over 2 inches.
The shining star of this forecast is Saturday, which has really dried out nicely. (During the daytime hours, at least.) Partly sunny skies, a fresh west-southwest breeze, and high temperatures near 60? Not bad at all!
Keep the umbrella handy though, as yet another storm system will bring even more rain starting Saturday night. Start time is likely after about 9 p.m. This batch of rain looks shorter and less intense than the Thursday-Friday system, but it's still going to be wet through the second half of the weekend. I'm thinking steady rain for Sunday morning, then becoming more showery Sunday afternoon.
Temperatures are tricky for Sunday, as guidance shows some warmer air surging into South Jersey. So I'll put our high temperature range between the lower-mid 50s (north) and mid-upper 60s (south). Hopefully we can get more specific about that cool-warm line as this particular disturbance draws closer.
Monday just looks blah, as we find ourselves on the backside of that storm system. Showery and cloudy. Breezy and cool, with highs in the mid 50s.
Long-range models are hinting at some warmth by the middle of next week. I'm liking what I see here — widespread 60s on Tuesday and near 70 on Wednesday! There will be at least partial sunshine, although each day will carry the chance for some showers too.
Umbrellas up! Enjoy the rain, jump in some puddles, and stay safe.