NJ weather: Chilly Tuesday, snow showers and a warmup coming soon
The Bottom Line
Yes, I put the big "s" word in the headline. No, it's not going to be a big deal. But Wednesday's weak disturbance is really all we have to talk about through the rest of the workweek. That and unseasonably cold temperatures, of course.
Another morning, another freeze. Temperatures are running slightly warmer than on Monday morning, thanks to a thin blanket of clouds early on. With thermometers around 30 degrees in the early morning hours, you'll want to bundle up a bit once again.
High temperatures Tuesday will be very similar to Monday, near 40 degrees. That is 5 to 7 degrees below seasonal norms. We'll continue to see passing clouds throughout the morning, before sunshine emerges in the afternoon. Meanwhile, some flurries or even an outright snow shower may clip NW NJ early Tuesday morning, but I don't anticipate any accumulations or travel impacts.
Unsurprisingly, Tuesday night will be cold too. Lows will dip into the upper 20s again, under mostly clear skies.
The best proof that Wednesday morning's weak disturbance won't amount to much? I didn't even mention it on-air on Monday, as I had almost completely written it off. (Too weak, too dry, etc.)
I'm now thinking we have a legitimate shot at widespread snow showers developing in New Jersey from morning through midday Wednesday. Let's say 6 a.m. to Noon. And let's call it conversational snowflakes.
There are several limiing factors in play here: timing, temperatures, and dew points. In South Jersey and along the Jersey Shore, it could very well be too warm for snowflakes. In addition, throughout the state, dry air could cause precipitation to fizzle out prematurely. And, of course, the age-old question of "will it stick?"
If everything is perfect, I could see a coating or dusting of snow accumulation in spots. (Although colder NW NJ would be the most likely to see the ground whiten, I don't want to get too specific on the geography here. The GFS model in particular paints the most substantial snowfall in central NJ.) A brief period of reduced visibility and slipperiness is possible too. But we're nowhere near an "advisory" level event here.
The rest of Wednesday will be mostly cloudy and cool. High temperatures will get stuck in the lower 40s.
Finally starting a warmup, albeit a little one. High temperatures will push into the upper 40s — much more typical of early December. We'll have lots of sun, dry weather, and only a light breeze. So I think it's fair to call Thursday a seasonably pleasant day.
Skies will progress from sun to clouds, as we top out near 50. Not bad.
The Weekend & Beyond
A warm front-cold front combination will lead to a warmup, two batches of wet weather, and then a big cooldown all within the course of the upcoming weekend.
High temperatures on Saturday will push into the 55 to 60 degree range — it could be our warmest day of December so far. However, clouds will win the sky. And we'll probably see some spotty rain showers around throughout the day.
Guidance shows the latest timing of our ensuing cold front delivering a brief period of steady-ish rain early Sunday morning, followed by a gusty wind and big cooldown. While Sunday's high temp will again reach the upper 50s, thermometers will fall back to the chilly 40s on Monday.
There are no "big" winter storms on the horizon. However, with cold air becoming more and more common, any storm system could produce some wintry weather over New Jersey. We're always watching — and when something comes along, you'll be among the first to know!
Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.