NJ weather: Calendar says November, thermometer isn’t listening
Welcome to November! As we progress through the eleventh month of the year, normal high temperatures continue to fall from about 60 degrees to around 50. Normal lows drop from the lower 40s to the mid 30s as winter draws closer and closer. November is New Jersey's 3rd driest month of the year, on average (behind only January and February). As I'm sure you're aware, snow is hit or miss but certainly possible.
Thursday will be pretty far from normal, as our warming trend continues and probably peaks. We're starting out in the upper 40s to mid 50s Thursday morning, and temperatures are forecast to generally top out in the lower 70s by Thursday afternoon. (I would not be surprised at all if somewhere in NJ hits 70 degrees by Noon.) That's about 10 degrees above normal for early November. While I had advertised Thursday as being "near-record", it won't even be close — record highs are 85 at Newark/Elizabeth, 83 at Trenton/Ewing, and 84 at Atlantic City/Egg Harbor Township.
Although Thursday's early to mid morning hours look sunny, clouds will steadily increase to mostly cloudy through the rest of the day.
The big challenge in this forecast is the timing of an approaching frontal complex. That will directly impact when 1.) rain arrives, 2.) rain departs, and 3.) cooler air arrives. Here's what I'm thinking.
I can't rule out an isolated shower or sprinkle creeping into NW NJ sometime Thursday afternoon. But the risk for widespread showers should hold off until Thursday nightm probably after Midnight. It's actually going to remain quite warm during the overnight hours — kind of summer-ish as temps only dip into the lower to mid 60s.
Friday looks wet, but still warm as thermometers come close to 70 degrees once more time. Showers will transition to scattered rain throughout Friday morning. And then, heavier rain with rumbles of thunder is expected late Friday through early Saturday. Not a washout — there will be lulls and breaks in the midst of the wet weather. Forecast rainfall totals are pretty impressive, ranging from about 3/4-inch to upwards of 2 inches. I am not concerned about the flooding potential, but we'll probably get a thorough soaking.
After the rain wraps up Saturday morning, skies will quickly clear to sunshine. We'll also pick up a gusty northwesterly wind, sustained at 10 to 20 mph with gusts potentially to 30 mph. And you know what that wind direction means — cool air is set to return to the Garden State.
Temperatures will tumble Saturday, from about 60 degrees in the morning to around 50 degrees by late afternoon. (I should mention that I do not have much confidence in the temperature forecast from Friday night to Saturday. It is highly dependent on the timing and strength of the cold front.) The combination of the wind and the newly refreshed chill might make the day feel bit brisk and blustery.
That's why I think Sunday will be the nicer day of the weekend. We'll see partly sunny skies with much lighter winds. High temperatures will be seasonable (near-normal) in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees. Not bad!
The longer-range forecast shows our next chance of rain coinciding with Election Day on Tuesday. At least it will be warm, with 60s and possibly even 70s surging into New Jersey once again. There are presently no significant winter storms in the forecast through at least mid-November.