NJ heat wave day 7 of 9: Assimilating more steamy weather through midweek
The Bottom Line
Weather has been awfully hot around New Jersey lately. In fact, on 25 of the last 28 days, the thermometer at one weather station in NJ hit 90+ degrees.
We face (approximately) three more days of ferocious heat and disgusting humidity, before a substantial break. This week's cooldown will be a slow process. But the change will be wonderful. Not only will we taste September-ish weather by the weekend, but a good soaking rain is possible for part of the state too.
Monday will be very similar to Sunday, back in "dangerous heat" territory. It will be mostly sunny, with occasional clouds. And it will be breezy, potentially keeping mainland beaches hot and toasty too.
Thermometers will reach the lower to mid 90s across the state Monday afternoon. The heat index ("feels like" or "apparent" temperature) will peak around 98 to 102 degrees.
A Heat Advisory continues until 8 p.m. Tuesday for most of inland New Jersey. Stay cool and chug that water!
Typical of most hot summer days, an isolated popup thunderstorm is possible at some point. The best forcing for a storm will be to the north and west. Given the juicy atmosphere, any storm that forms will probably produce a little downpour.
Monday night will be uncomfortably muggy. (I say it during every heat wave — those suffocating nights are just as bad as stifling hot afternoons.)
One more day of dangerous heat and humidity. High temperatures will push into the mid 90s. The heat index will surge as high as 105 degrees.
Skies will range between mostly to partly sunny on Tuesday.
And then a weak cold front will approach northwestern New Jersey Tuesday evening. So, starting around dinnertime, we could see a few showers and thunderstorms traverse North Jersey. The spread of that rain will be limited, although stronger storm cells and downpours are certainly possible.
Tuesday night's front will get stuck as it charges through New Jersey. So that means only the northern part of the state will feel cooler, drier air on Wednesday. (I'd estimate that would include areas along and north of Interstate 78.)
Optimistically, high temperatures in North Jersey on Wednesday will be limited to 80 degrees. With noticeably lower humidity too. However, most of the state will still be steamy — expect 90-ish for a high in central and southern NJ, under mostly cloudy skies.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be likely on Wednesday too, especially the later in the day it gets (afternoon and evening). I think everyone gets wet at some point here. And some (not all) of the Garden State will see over an inch of healthy rainfall.
Sweet relief. As showers wrap up in the morning, we'll fall into a slightly cooler and much drier air mass. High temperatures on Thursday will scale back to near-normal, in the mid 80s. Humidity will continue to drop through the day. And skies will clear to sunshine, making for a return to very nice summer weather.
Friday & Beyond
Bargain basement humidity will contribute to an amazing weekend. Temperatures will end up a few degrees below normal for mid-August — you may notice a September-ish feel to the air. But with abundant sunshine and completely dry weather, it will feel warm and pleasant.
I'm seeing highs in the lower 80s on Friday, near 80 degrees on Saturday, and lower to mid 80s on Sunday.
Our next substantial chance of rain won't come until the middle of next week. Yes, that means drought concerns will continue.
For the first time in a while, the tropics are showing signs of life. A tropical wave off the west coast of Africa may develop into something interesting in the coming days. It is still 10 to 14 days away from the U.S. East Coast — if it holds together that long. Reminder: We are coming into the most active part of the Atlantic hurricane season, with the official peak about one month away.
Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.