Monday NJ weather: One more batch of beneficial rain, then dry dry dry
The Bottom Line
An area of low pressure spinning over the Great Lakes will be New Jersey's main weather driver to start the week. We have plenty of humidity in the air. And there will be some clouds and rain over the next 24 hours too. Most of that wet weather will sweep through the state Monday night.
And then, two downward leaps in humidity (Tuesday and Thursday) will lead to another extended stretch of bone-dry weather. Our next rain chance is at least a week away. The drought concerns aren't over yet — not even close.
Despite Sunday's soggy weather, the daytime hours on Monday actually look mainly dry. We are starting with some fog, mist, and damp roads — but there's nothing falling from the sky, according to radar.
If spotty showers do crop up Monday, they would be isolated to spotty. And are most likely to occur in South Jersey.
Otherwise, we start the day clouds, with breaks of sun probably Monday afternoon. It is very humid. And it will be warm, with highs in the lower 80s.
A high risk of rip currents continues along the Jersey Shore, even though wave heights have waned to 2-3 feet.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms become likely after about 5 p.m. Monday, with rain chances continuing overnight. Most of New Jersey will probably pick up a half-inch to an inch of additional rainfall, with locally higher amounts.
Yes, there could be some stronger storm cells and some downpours. But while this air mass is definitely humid, I wouldn't call it "tropical" or "juicy". So the threat for huge deluges and widespread flooding seems low. It is just going to be a wet overnight.
Monday night will stay steamy too, with most low temperatures in the lower 70s.
Tuesday's forecast is all about improvements.
Clouds and showers may linger for a bit Tuesday morning. But between 8 a.m. and Noon, we should start to see considerable improvements to our weather.
In fact, the effects of a cold front will really take hold Tuesday afternoon. Our weather will turn sunny and breezy. And humidity levels will drop sharply. (Dew points will go from 70 in the morning to the mid 50s by late-day. Comfy!)
Given the bright sky and the lack of truly "cool" air, I think we'll still see high temps near 80 degrees on Tuesday.
Wednesday looks like a beautiful day. Sunny and dry, with low humidity and seasonable temperatures. Highs will reach the upper 70s, on average. We'll have a light, refreshing northwest breeze too.
By Thursday, New Jersey will enter an even cooler and even drier air mass.
Shall we talk about a taste of autumn first thing Thursday morning? North Jersey could touch the 40s, with the rest of the state in the 50s. Maybe cool enough for a light jacket or sweater on the way out the door?
Thursday will be another pleasant, comfortable, mild day with sunshine and highs in the mid to upper 70s.
The Extended Forecast
The earliest that clouds and showers could conceivably return to New Jersey would be early next week, around the Monday time frame. But even that doesn't look to amount to much, if anything at all. (The Euro model keeps NJ completely dry through the first day of fall.)
There is one piece of the weather puzzle we need to watch closely though. And that is the tropics. This week is the average peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. There's nothing out there now — Danielle and Earl are no more. And there are two minor waves being watched carefully too.
Fans of Shrek and Beauty and the Beast will be thrilled to know the next two names on the Atlantic hurricane list are Fiona and Gaston.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs through November.
Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.