Two potential shots of steady, healthy rainfall would do wonders for the Garden State's long-term rainfall deficit.

Happy Monday, New Jersey! And BRRRR...

Don't be ashamed if you need a jacket or sweatshirt early Monday morning. This is the coolest morning New Jersey has seen so far this fall season. Thermometers have fallen into the 40s across most of the state, with a few chilly 30s scattered in the coolest places and 50s along the coast. In fact, temperatures are so cool in Sussex and Ocean County that some patchy frost may develop in the early morning hours.

Just like Sunday, Monday will begin with beautiful sunshine and blue skies. That will help temps warm very quickly into the lower 70s - very similar to Sunday.

Monday afternoon will look very different than Monday morning. After about 1 p.m. Monday, clouds will increase significantly and a stiff breeze will pick up to about 20 mph. We might even see a late-day rain shower - mainly after 5 p.m. and in South Jersey.

The better chance for appreciable rain will come Monday night and especially Tuesday morning as a front approaches New Jersey. Models show some a band of healthy rainfall affecting the entire state between about Midnight and 8 a.m.. Overall rainfall totals should end up around a quarter-inch to a half-inch, with upwards of an inch if/where the rain really pours down.

Because of the rain, the clouds, and the increased humidity, Tuesday's low temperatures won't be nearly as chilly as Monday's. We'll only drop to around 60 degrees.

Some showers may linger in South Jersey on Tuesday morning. Skies should clear slightly through Tuesday afternoon High temperatures are forecast to be in the lower to mid 70s. Not a bad fall day, once any residual rain clears out.

The first half of Wednesday looks pleasant as well, with partly sunny skies and highs again in the 70s. By Wednesday afternoon, however, this forecast takes a very wet turn through the rest of the workweek.

As an area of low pressure stalls over the central Appalachians (around Kentucky), we'll find ourselves within a wet weather pattern, providing continuous rain chances through late Wednesday, all-day Thursday, and possibly even Friday. I have to stress this is a very low confidence forecast. At this point, I think it's safe to see we'll we'll see some period of rain, but models have been incredibly wishy-washy about the magnitude and timing of the heaviest rain. So I am not comfortable providing much forecast detail at this time.

I will say that the wettest scenario includes a wide swath of 3+ inches of rain falling by the end of the week. Such heavy rain would do wonders for our impending drought situation. But such downpours may lead to flooding too.

We'll hopefully dry out by the weekend, with pleasant fall temperatures once again. But that part of the forecast is up in the air too.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.

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