Two days of pleasant summer weather for New Jersey
The atmosphere once again turned electric Wednesday night, as scattered thunderstorms swept locally heavy rain and some noisy thunder. As of this writing (6 a.m. Thursday), the storms and residual showers have exited the Garden State. Of course, the steaminess remains.
I do have some good news for Thursday, as our atmosphere dries out and humidity levels drop slightly throughout the day. We're not talking about a big change — dew points will drop from the mid 70s to the mid 60s. You may not even notice the difference during the day, but you probably will feel more comfortable and refreshed at night.
It's still going going to be very warm Thursday, with high temperatures climbing to about 90 degrees. (Sure, call it hot if you want to — for some spots, this will be the fifth 90+ degree day in a row.) We'll enjoy mostly sunny skies all day, and we should stay storm-free.
Sounds like good beach weather to me! If you are headed for the Jersey Shore, just keep in mind that ocean temperatures have taken a nosedive. At some (not all) New Jersey beaches, water temps are only in the 60s — that's pretty chilly, especially for August! I'm not sure whether this cooler water has moved in laterally or via upwelling — just be prepared to yelp when you stick a toe in the Atlantic.
I'm calling Thursday night to Friday morning almost comfortable as the effects of the subtly drier air really settle in. Low temperatures will dip into the upper 60s to around 70 degrees. It could be our coolest night since July. Skies will remain clear, and our weather will be rain-free overnight.
Friday looks like a pretty good day too, although the sky will transition from sun to clouds by the afternoon. Highs will be above-normal once again, in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. As a front slowly approaches New Jersey, a few showers may clip northern New Jersey Friday afternoon. For most of the state, I think sporadic showers will hold off until Friday night (say, after about 8 p.m.)
Then along comes the weekend. And unfortunately, it doesn't look incredibly pleasant, as rain returns to the forecast picture. For Saturday and Sunday. And Monday and Tuesday too.
As the aforementioned front stalls on top of New Jersey, we'll once again find ourselves directly under a stagnant storm track. As impulses of low pressure ride this "highway in the sky," we'll see several waves of rain. Some of those waves will be very light and spotty (especially Saturday), some will be steadier and heavier (especially Sunday).
In addition, we'll face a northeasterly or easterly wind throughout the weekend, which will contribute to mostly cloudy or overcast skies and cooler temperatures. Much of the state may be stuck in the 70s all day Saturday.
I'm still not ready to call either day of this weekend a total washout just yet, as the latest guidance suggests we'll catch periods and pockets of dry weather for both days. Just know that if you're hoping and expecting continued sunshine and warmth, it's not going to happen.
The long-range forecast keeps scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for Monday and Tuesday, before temperatures heat up again through the middle of next week.