NJ weather: This week starts with spot storms, ends with dry air
Good Monday morning, New Jersey! Well, it's sort of a good morning. I'm not sure if you noticed, but the days just keep getting shorter and shorter. This is the first weekday of the summer with a sunrise after 6 a.m. And by the end of the week, sunset will slip before 8 p.m. It's still August, it's still summer, and we have plenty of warm weather ahead. Plenty of humidity and rain to talk about too, of course.
This back-to-work Monday morning is starting off with temperatures mostly in the lower 70s. NW NJ is a notable exception, as a taste of dry air has allowed thermometers to dip into the 50s. Nice! Don't get used to it though, as the drier air won't last. And most of the state (especially close to the coast) won't see a notable drop in humidity at all.
Monday looks mostly cloudy and a bit cooler than Sunday, with high temperatures in the lower to mid 80s. In addition, a few showers and thunderstorms are forecast to pop up in South Jersey Monday afternoon. Models are painting some localized heavy rain in the vicinity of Atlantic County through Monday early evening. So, it's just like the past few days — most of the state will stay dry, but if you do get wet you get soaked.
The chance for showers will continue Monday night, again mainly (but not exclusively) to the south. Low temperatures will dip into the upper 60s to around 70 degrees — not bad for this time of year.
Hopefully we'll see partial sunshine on Tuesday. A flip to southerly winds will push temperatures upward a few degrees, with forecast highs generally in the mid 80s. We'll probably see a bunch of teeny tiny showers and thunderstorms throughout the day. This time, everyone in NJ is prone to see a brief period of rain at some point.
Humidity is going to get pretty high by Wednesday. It will be a breezy and very warm day, with highs mainly in the upper 80s. The heat index ("feels like" temperature) could pop to 95+ degrees — that's when we start to raise an eyebrow about excessive/dangerous heat concerns. An isolated shower is possible during the daytime hours Wednesday.
Probably our best chance of widespread rain and thunderstorms this week will be Wednesday night. Pockets of heavy rain will be possible between about 7 p.m. and 5 a.m.
One more humid, unsettled day appears in the forecast for Thursday. We should get some solid sunshine for the first half of the day with highs again close to 90. Then one more round of showers and thunderstorms will arrive sometime late-day.
That rain is associated with a cold front that will usher in a big pattern chance on Friday. The exit time of that rain is still a bit uncertain — showers may linger through Friday morning. But by Friday afternoon, I prefer a flip to sunshine and much lower humidity. (A slight cooldown is expected too.)
So the timing of this pattern change is great, with another Jersey summer weekend on the way! It's still early, but I love what I see. Lower 80s, low humidity, no rain, and mostly to partly sunny skies for both Saturday and Sunday? If that forecast holds, I'll be bold and declare this could be one of the top weekends of the entire summer!