As the Thanksgiving holiday weekend nears, changes are in the forecast as bit of rain and cooler temperatures aim for the Garden State.

Tuesday mild. Wednesday rain then cooler. Thursday cold. Got it? Great. Let's dig into the details of this holiday week forecast.

Tuesday morning is starting off pretty cold across the Garden State. The temperature map shows mostly 30s, with pockets of 20s to the north and 40s along the coast. The morning hours should feature plenty of sunshine, with a noticeable increase in cloud cover by Tuesday afternoon.

Meanwhile, winds have shifted, and will blow from the southwest today. That is traditionally a warming wind for New Jersey, and today will be no different. Highs are forecast to reach the mid to upper 50s for most of the state, while South Jersey may top 60 degrees. That is slightly above normal for late November. Despite the warmer temps, you'll probably need a jacket all day, given occasional 20+ mph wind gusts.

As clouds and humidity increase Tuesday night, the atmosphere will be primed to receive some rain. An approaching cold front will serve as the "highway" for a weak coastal storm system. The front could spark some showers by itself (a few hundredth of an inch, at the most). Meanwhile, the coastal system may bring a period of steadier rain to coastal locations such as Wildwood, Atlantic City, and Long Beach Island (up to a half-inch, perhaps). This forecast is very sensitive to the exact track of the coastal low, and it's relative timing to our approaching front. Could locations further inland receive a brief drenching? Sure. Could much of New Jersey stay completely dry overnight? Absolutely.

By mid-morning Wednesday, showers and clouds will exit the state as cooler, drier air starts filtering in. Thermometers on Wednesday will reach the mid 50s around Noon, before falling slowly through the afternoon hours. At least part of the state will probably tumble into the 40s by sunset.

No weather problems are expected for one of the busiest travel days of the year.

Then, things get really cold for Thanksgiving Thursday. If you're heading to the parade in New York City or Philadelphia, bundle up — early morning temperatures will probably fall well into the 20s! High temperatures will be limited to the mid 40s on Thursday afternoon, despite mostly sunny skies.

The latest forecast models also plop a nuisance shower over New Jersey in the PM hours of Thursday. Could be raindrops, could be snowflakes. In either case, precipitation will be light and scattered.

Your Black Friday forecast is also pretty chilly, with another morning below freezing. High temps should recover to about 50 degrees by Friday afternoon.

The extended forecast shows the continuation of quiet weather through Saturday, with highs in the mid 50s. Sunday turns breezy and cooler, with highs dropping to the 40s, but otherwise shows to be uneventful. Monday looks sunny, windy, and cold with highs only around 40 degrees.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.

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