NJ Election 2022: What to expect as Roe backlash meets ‘red wave’

TRENTON – Despite redistricting changes that helped three of four Democratic incumbents in swing districts in New Jersey, Republicans exited the primary in June believing that an advantageous political environment could fuel big gains in the state this year.

They still hope so. But things seem to have changed significantly in the last three months, with Democrats now feeling more confident about holding onto most or all of what they have gained in recent election cycles.

The party that’s out of power – right now, the Republicans – generally has a motivational edge in midterm elections. A few months ago, with gas prices spiking and overall inflation on top of that, a tremendous year seemed to be shaping up for them.

But since June, with gas prices moving back down and the Supreme Court overturning the nationwide right to an abortion, that has changed, says political scientist Micah Rasmussen, director of the Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics at Rider University.

'Both sides have reason to be enthusiastic'

“Democrats have gotten more engaged as well, and now it’s looking more like that 2018 environment where both sides have reason to be enthusiastic,” Rasmussen said.

Redistricting had already fortified the chances for Democratic incumbents Josh Gottheimer, Andy Kim and Mikie Sherrill, as the adjustments to the map boundaries to rebalance their populations also tilted those districts’ voter registration composition toward Democrats.

Rasmussen said the voter registration composition in both the 3rd and 11th Districts shifted 50,000 toward the Democrats, while the 5th District moved 40,000 in their direction. Among swing districts, only the 7th District moved toward Republicans in redistricting, by a net of around 30,000 voters.

“It takes a lot to knock off an incumbent, and there are reasons for them to be enthusiastic and optimistic everywhere really except for that 7th District,” Rasmussen said.

Rasmussen said three months ago, he’d have said Kean was the favorite in the race. That’s less pronounced now.

“But I think that there’s still a lean,” he said. “You can’t really deny that Tom Kean still has advantage in that district.”

“It’s the one race in the state where you would say at this point that you could still see a detectable Republican leaning at this point,” he said. “And we’ll see what happens because the environment is changing rapidly and I think will continue to change rapidly between now and November.”

Rasmussen was referring to the lean of the swing districts. He said neither Republican incumbent in New Jersey – Chris Smith or Jeff Van Drew – “are sweating it at this point.”

The election is nine weeks away, on Nov. 8.

Given the levels of enthusiasm on both sides, Rasmussen said he wouldn’t be surprised to see turnout similar to 2018’s midterm level of 56%.

“I think that that’s possible," he said. "And I don’t think that we’ll be sitting here embarrassed by how few voters voted after Election Day.”

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Turnout won’t be close to two years ago, when it was 72% for the presidential election. The last three times that House races topped the ballot, turnout was 42% to 43% of registered voters.

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