More sweaty, stormy weather for NJ through the end of the week
Umbrellas up, and get ready to chew through the air! Tropical conditions have returned to New Jersey, as increased humidity leads to increased storm chances over the next three days.
As expected, a batch of rain has been drifting northward through the Garden State overnight. There are additional widely scattered showers and thunderstorms across the rest of the state. So it will be a wet commute for some, but there's nothing horrendously heavy or severe at this time.
As rain exits by late morning Wednesday, sunshine will break through the clouds and you are going to feel the steaminess. High temperatures will spike into the mid 80s.
You will find an extended period of "beach weather" in the middle of the day. But be warned: rough surf and a high risk of rip currents will keep red flags flying along the Jersey Shore.
The heat and humidity may help to fuel a few popup thunderstorms from late Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening. Best chance will be to the north and west. Our latest model guidance has actually backed off the stormy potential — the "ingredients" for strong to severe storms will be present, although the "spark" seems weak. With gusty winds, frequent lightning, and torrential downpours possible, it's a good idea to stay weather-aware, keep eyes on the sky, etc. in this situation. Just keep in mind, not everyone in NJ will get a storm.
A leftover shower or thunderstorm is possible Wednesday night, with patchy fog possible as well. Thermometers will only fall into the mid 70s overnight. Yuck.
Scattered showers are expected for Thursday. They'll be hit-or-miss, on-and-off, here-and-there, etc. Otherwise, we'll see partly sunny skies. And it will feel hot and humid, with high temps around 85 to 90 degrees.
It looks like Friday will begin dry, although mostly cloudy and still oppressively humid. High temperatures will hold steady in the 85 to 90 degree range.
Our next storm system — the final system of this stretch of unsettled weather — will be a cold front. Models are wishy-washy on the timing of this front, with possible onset ranging from Friday afternoon (NAM) to Friday evening (GFS) to early Saturday morning (Euro). It's safe to say that a period of thunderstorms and some heavier rainfall is likely from late Friday to early Saturday. We'll be able to pinpoint that timing further once the models come in better agreement.
Once rain exits Saturday morning, it looks like we'll dry out through the rest of the weekend. (Although I wouldn't rule an isolated popup shower on Saturday in particular.) Humidity will be a bit lower, with dew points descending into the 60s.
However, even as our unsettled stretch of weather comes to an end, it looks like heat will build once again. High temperatures may touch 90 on Saturday, and widespread 90s will be possible for Sunday and beyond. Ahh, the joys of summer. (And air conditioning!)