The Bottom Line

As humidity subsides and skies clear Monday morning, we'll get a real taste of autumnlike weather. Tuesday could be our coolest day since May. Meanwhile, the tropics remain hyper active with 7 areas of concern. That will lead to rough surf along the Jersey Shore, along with our one and only rain chance of the week.

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After a decent weekend, with fluctuating periods of sun and clouds, we're now tracking a cold front pushing through New Jersey on this Monday morning. At the moment, it's mostly cloudy and somewhat sticky, as overnight low temperatures have only fallen into the upper 60s and lower 70s. There could even be a shower or sprinkle in the early morning hours — although this frontal boundary is admittedly moisture starved.

As our new air mass arrives, you'll notice three changes, in the following order. First a brisk north-northwest breeze will kick up, potentially gusting to about 25 mph. Then clouds will give way to mainly sunny skies by Monday afternoon. And humidity will gradually dial back, as dew points retreat from 60s Monday morning into the 40s Monday night.

High temperatures on Monday will reach about 75 to 80 degrees — similar to Sunday, and close to normal for mid-September.

Monday night will remain clear and breezy. And admittedly, there may be a little chill in the air Tuesday morning. I think our low temperatures will average about 50 degrees. Northwestern New Jersey will dip well into the 40s. Urban and coastal areas will be the warm spots.

Another important item of note: the ocean. Hurricane Paulette, Tropical Depression Rene, Tropical Storm Sally, Tropical Storm Teddy, and three tropical waves are churning up the entire Atlantic basin. With 4 to 6 foot ocean waves expected along the Jersey Shore, a high risk of dangerous rip currents is posted. Even though the water is still nice and warm, please don't plan on jumping in the ocean any time soon.

Monday's tropical overview, showing 7 areas of concern across the Atlantic basin. (NOAA / NHC)
Monday's tropical overview, showing 7 areas of concern across the Atlantic basin. (NOAA / NHC)


Autumn-lovers, rejoice. Probably our coolest day since late May. Probably too cool for the good ol' "shorts and t-shirt". And don't be shy if you need a jacket or sweater in the early morning or late evening hours!

Thermometers will only peak in the 65 to 70 degree range. It will be sunny, dry, and calm. Nice — just more typical of early October than mid-September, about 5 to 10 degrees below seasonal norms.


Mostly sunny and slightly warmer, in the mid 70s. We face some extra late-day cloud cover, as the remnants of (soon-to-be-hurricane) Sally creep in from the southwest.


Thursday's weather is solely dependent on the ultimate track of Sally's remnants. (Sally is set to make landfall along the Mississippi-Louisiana coast as a hurricane late Monday night.) To be clear, New Jersey's impacts will be far from a direct hit from a hurricane, tropical storm, or tropical depression. At the moment, models limit our rainfall to showers in far southern New Jersey only.

I am a little concerned the storm track "wiggles" north, and we end up a bit soggier. So I've inserted a statewide chance of rain, in addition to mostly cloudy to overcast skies. It will be somewhat humid, but not too steamy. High temperatures will push close to 80 degrees, likely our warmest day of the week.

Friday & Beyond

Let's not completely rule out a shower on Friday — again, depending on the exact track and timeline of Sally's remnant low and tropical moisture. We'll still have lots of cloud cover on Friday, but it will turn breezy and cooler. Just like Tuesday, highs will struggle to even reach the 70 degree mark.

And that's where we'll stay for the final weekend of summer. Thanks to an on-shore breeze, we're looking at upper 60s (give or take) for both Saturday and Sunday. Dry, but quite autumnal.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.

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