Monday NJ weather: A great week of summer weather ahead
The Bottom Line
No tropical storm. No severe thunderstorms. No extreme heat and humidity. Yes, there is a lot to love about this week's forecast!
The only rain chance over the next 72+ hours is a very isolated spritz — almost all of New Jersey will be dry and storm-free until Thursday night.
We had some early morning showers pass through New Jersey, which (as of this writing) are almost gone from radar. That rain was spawned by a cold front — which won't result in a big cooldown, but at least humidity will creep downward for a day or two.
Early morning clouds will turn to sunshine from midday through the afternoon. The rest of the day looks dry, with any storm activity staying northeast and south of us. Temperatures will be very warm, with highs generally between 85 and 90 degrees. As the sea breeze machine fires up, the beaches will be cooler in the mid to upper 70s. A moderate risk of rip currents is posted for the Jersey Shore once again too.
Monday evening and overnight look spectacular, thanks to that subtle dew point decrease. It will be clear and calm and quiet, as low temperatures bottom out in the mid to upper 60s.
Sunny skies. Seasonably warm temperatures, in the mid 80s. And only marginal humidity. A great combination!
A shift to a southeasterly (on-shore) wind on Wednesday, coupled with increased cloud cover, will lead to cooler temperatures. For now, I've put lower 80s in my forecast — although some models are suggesting we get stuck in the 70s. In any case, it still looks like a pleasant and dry day. Just below-normal for the midpoint of July.
A little greyer and even cooler. Mostly cloudy to overcast skies will limit highs to around 80 degrees. The daytime hours look breezy, but dry. And then our next cold front is scheduled to arrive late Thursday night (after about 10 p.m.) Showers and thunderstorms will be likely overnight.
We start the day with some rain, but my best guess dries us out around sunrise Friday morning. Clouds will slowly turn to sunshine, as temperatures return to the upper 80s to around 90 degrees.
There is one model — the Euro — that shows a slower frontal passage, and therefore a longer period of rain. In fact, showers could linger into Saturday. For now, I consider this solution an outlier. But we'll see how things continue to develop as the week goes along.
The Extended Forecast
As you know, forecast confidence and accuracy gets shaky beyond five days. For now, I like what I see for next weekend. It will be hot. But another drop in humidity following Friday's rain and frontal passage would be welcome. Partly sunny Saturday, mostly sunny Sunday, highs near 90.