Biggest impacts from NJ’s weekend storm: Coastal flooding and wind

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For the latest storm forecast information, please refer to my newest weather blog post.

Latest storm update

Welcome to the weekend! Saturday will be the one decent day of the holiday weekend, although it will be marked by increasing clouds, an increasing breeze, and increasing humidity. There will be a few spotty showers and some misty drizzle around. But I do expect a mainly dry day for all corners of the Garden State.

In terms of our impending coastal storm for Sunday and Monday, I think we are still in for an extended period of inclement and generally unpleasant weather. But as we have discussed, the threat for truly "dangerous" conditions looks limited to the coast.

I think my forecast infographic speaks for itself in terms of the intensity and geography of storm impacts around New Jersey.

Latest model guidance has trended rainfall totals lower for New Jersey from Sunday to Monday. That is not a surprise, as rain was never the primary concern for this storm. I have nudged my rain forecast somewhat lower to follow suit — but I do have to leave the door open for a last-minute track wiggle and localized overperformance.)

In addition, while wind gusts still look fierce for several hours along the Jersey Shore, the wind direction is less favorable for storm surge and coastal flooding. Oh, we are still going to see widespread flooding and water inundation issues. Just slightly less severe, especially along the northern half of the Jersey Shore (Monmouth and Ocean counties). And I am becoming more confident that we are only looking at three precariously high high tide cycles instead of four.

Let's dig into the details a little more so you know what to expect.

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Don't focus on the rain

Over the last 24 hours, forecast models have really dialed back on potential rainfall, owing to a farther away storm track and lighter rain bands actually reaching New Jersey. That is actually unfortunate — we could use a good soaking, and hazardous flash flooding was never a huge concern.

The bottom line: Inland New Jersey (most of the state) will get about an inch of rain. Coastal areas (potentially up into NE NJ) should see about two inches. There is a lot of give and take in those numbers, depending on where the rain bands actually set up and how quickly they move Sunday, Sunday night, and Monday.

Everybody gets wet. Some, but not all, will end up pretty soaked. Severe weather is unlikely.

Umbrellas up, windshield wipers on. Travel may be slow during moderate to heavy rain, but absolutely doable. (Except near tidal waterways at high tide — keep reading.)

The biggest impacts will be felt at the Shore

As we have discussed, a "coastal storm" generally causes the most serious issues for ... the coast. And this one will be no different.

No matter which run of which model you look at, coastal flooding and high winds are a thing. So I have no reason to let up on the gas of this serious and potentially dangerous situation. It is just a matter of how fast the anemometer blows. And how high the water goes, which again is largely a factor of wind direction.

I am going to keep the wind speed forecast steady from yesterday. East-northeast gusts to 30 or 40 mph inland. And then 50 or 60 mph along the coast. That is pretty fierce, and enough for widespread power outages and garbage can relocations. Make sure your Halloween decorations are secured. And get ready for a lot of leaffall.

A High Wind Watch is in effect for NJ's coastal counties.

Storm surge estimates are still coming in between 2 and 4 feet for the duration of the storm, with the highest tide levels expected along the southern half of the Jersey Shore (Atlantic and Cape May counties). The biggest chance in thinking is that we are now only looking at 3 big surges of water at high tide, instead of 4. Good news, but still a precarious situation for those near any tidal waterway.

A Coastal Flood Warning has been posted for the Jersey Shore, from Middlesex to Salem counties, from Sunday morning through Monday night. A Coastal Flood Advisory extends up the Delaware River from Gloucester to Camden to Burlington.

Here's how the coastal flooding picture breaks down specifically. (Remember, back bays crest 2 to 3 hours after the ocean. Large tidal tributaries, including the Delaware River, crest 5 to 6 hours after the ocean.)

—Sunday Midday... Ocean high tide is around 12-1 p.m. Points along the southern coast may exceed Major flood stage. Otherwise, Moderate flooding expected for all oceanside and bayside communities (including the Raritan Bay and Delaware Bay). Delaware River crests above Minor flood stage.

—Sunday Night... Ocean high tide is around 1 a.m. Back bays more like 3-4 a.m. Delaware River in the middle of the Monday AM commute at 6-7 a.m. Widespread Moderate flooding expected up and down the Jersey Shore, both ocean and bays. Delaware River again at Minor flooding.

—Monday Midday... Ocean high tide is around 1-2 p.m. Back bays cresting 3-4 p.m. Delaware River in the PM commute at 5-6 p.m. Some tidal gauges may experience the highest crest of the week here, in the Major flood category, again especially along the southern half of the Shore. Otherwise, one more round of widespread Moderate flooding expected. Delaware River will crest again above Minor flood stage.

There may be additional minor flooding at the next high tide Monday night. Specific tidal guidance only runs 72 hours in advance, so I don't have a great view on that just yet.

Prime time: Sunday and Sunday night

Just expect a "yucky" weather day on Sunday. Rainy and windy, with that looming threat of coastal flooding if you're near the Shore.

While rain will not necessarily be constant and heavy, especially in the morning, everyone will be wet at times.

And again, there will be some variety in top wind gusts, between 20 mph (inland) and 60 mph (coast), with the strongest winds likely coming late-day.

Monday will get better

Scattered rain will likely continue through Monday, and there will be a continued chance for some heavy stuff. Winds will remain in the "breezy" category, but should be lighter than Sunday as the main storm system transfers its energy and pulls away.

I don't expect skies to brighten much nor temperatures to warm much above 60 degrees on Monday. So let's call it "blah" instead of "yucky".

The rest of next week looks quiet. We will see decent glimmers of sunshine on Tuesday, although temperatures hold below normal in the mid 60s. More of the same on Wednesday, partial sunshine and mid 60s. A cooldown drags temperatures down for the second half of the week. I don't see any more rain or active weather coming into play until the tail end of next weekend.

Be smart and be safe out there! We will continue to keep you updated, on-air and online, as this stormy situation continues to develop. My next comprehensive weather blog post is expected just as the storm starts to ramp up Sunday morning.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.