NJ weather: Falling back into fall with a rainy, breezy cooldown

UPDATE... This article is outdated...

For the latest storm forecast information, please refer to my newest weather blog post.

Bye bye, summer weather. A strong cold front will push through New Jersey on Wednesday. The first phase of this weather transition will be a rainy morning, with pockets of heavy stuff making for a soggy commute for many. Then, as the sun comes out Wednesday afternoon, a brisk northerly wind will mark the arrival of cooler, drier air into New Jersey. We descend back into "jacket weather" by Wednesday night, with temperature stuck at or below seasonal normals for the foreseeable future. Highs will only be in the 60s for Thursday and Friday, with morning frost possible in the coldest corners of the state. How autumnal and October-ish.

We have been watching the potential for a coastal storm system to develop this weekend. And at this point, I'm confident enough to call it a "hit" for New Jersey, in the Sunday to Monday time frame, with some degree of rain and wind expected. But will it be "breezy showers" or "gusty downpours"?

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Wednesday NJ weather: An active weather day

Wednesday is a cold front day, a big transition from summer-ish weather back to October-ish weather. And it will play out in two phases.

The first part of Wednesday will be wet. Rain was slow to arrive overnight, but as of this writing (7 a.m.), it is now raining across almost all of New Jersey. Nothing crazy or severe here — just our first batch of wet weather in about a week and a half. Rainfall totals will probably end up around a half-inch. Possibly closer to an inch, if we get a pocket of heavier stuff.

It looks like drier weather will prevail as rain ends from west to east around midday. I expect NJ to be completely dry by around Noon or 1 p.m. Wednesday. And the sun will shine brightly shortly thereafter.

The second part of the day will be a brisk northerly breeze kicking up, transporting in our new cooler, drier air mass. Wind gusts may exceed 20 mph, adding a blustery characteristic to the day. (Pretty "autumn-like" if you ask me.)

Temperatures will slide downward from a high near 70 degrees in the morning, through the 60s in the afternoon.

The wind will not die down Wednesday night. With the air all stirred up, temperatures will not be able to really crash and bottom out — so there is no danger of a frost this time around. Still, grab the jacket for sure, as lows hit the mid 40s across New Jersey.

Thursday NJ weather: Back to jacket weather

A far cry from those four consecutive days in the 80s, Thursday's high temperatures will only reach the lower 60s. That is firmly below normal even for early October. (More in line for long-term averages for late October, FYI.)

Skies will be sunny. And the chilly breeze will still be around for at least the first half of the day, before calming eventually.

Friday NJ weather: Frosty morning possible

Friday morning will be colder than Thursday morning, thanks to a calm wind and clear skies. With temperatures potentially in the 30s in the coldest corners of the state — the northwest hills and possibly the Pine Barrens — it may very well be cold enough for our first frost of the season. (Note: It does not have to be 32 degrees for frost to form. Often, a measured air temperature of 36 or 37 degrees is cold enough for ice crystals to form in the lowest few inches of the atmosphere.)

Frost does not mean much to the average New Jerseyan. It is really just a heads up for farmers and gardeners. Of course, you will want to dress appropriately for some chilly autumn weather.

Friday will be another bright and sunny day, with a lighter wind. High temperatures should improve slightly to the mid 60s.

Weekend NJ weather: Next weathermaker

The weekend will be a true mixed bag. The big thing to watch will be the development of a coastal storm system off the Carolinas on Friday, sliding toward New Jersey by the second half of the weekend. (Yes, you can call it a nor'easter if you really want — I try not to use that word outside of the winter season, as it implies a hyped-up snowy connotation that is absolutely not the case here.)

Saturday's forecast is trending OK for now — just cloudy with a stray shower along the coast. However, Sunday and Columbus Day Monday could turn rather nasty.

The two elements of the forecast I have been focusing on so far are: 1.) Will this storm be a "hit" for New Jersey, and 2.) When will it arrive?

The answers: 1.) Yes, we will see at least some rain and wind impacts here in the Garden State, with little room for the storm system to completely escape or dissipate. 2.) Primary impacts look to be on Sunday, with additional wet, stormy weather potentially lasting into Monday too.

The impacts forecast is the tricky part, as exactly what falls from the sky will be highly dependent on the storm track and strength. And each forecast model tells a slightly different story of how this system plays out.

The easiest, best case scenario? Breezy showers on Sunday, breaking apart by Monday. A few tenths of an inch of rain, localized to the coast. Inclement, damp, and cloudy. Outdoor plans would be affected for some, but not everyone. And we would not have to ring alarm bells for any inherently dangerous weather conditions.

As for the worst case scenario? (Just to be clear, no forecast model currently plays out such a solution — I am just speculating.) Widespread 3 to 4+ inches of rain from Sunday through Monday, raising flooding issues. Top wind gusts around 60+ mph, causing power outages. Big waves and coastal flooding concerns. Nasty business all around.

So the spread of potential weather conditions here is huge. And the truth, the most likely outcome, is probably in the middle. I just want to give you a sense of the potential seriousness of this weekend's storm, and assure you that we will continue to watch this one very closely.

I would not cancel your outdoor plans just yet for this weekend, as there is still some wiggle room in the exact timing and impacts of this thing. But definitely keep a close eye on the forecast. As always, we will have constant updates both on-air and online in the coming days with the latest information. And, if necessary, full coverage during and after the storm.

5 DAY FORECAST: New Jersey Weather Center