Hey NJ, you will notice some new weather advisories this winter

Yes, I know it is only fall. And we have had some spectacularly mild weather lately. But temperatures will be turning colder with each passing week. Soon enough, we will have regular frosts and freezes across New Jersey. And soon enough, snow, ice, and biting cold will be regular hazards.

October is technically the start of snow season in the Garden State. So it is time to start looking ahead to and preparing for the long winter ahead.

The National Weather Service sure is. They are responsible for issuing forecasts and advisories for the entire United States "for the protection of life and property and enhancement of the national economy."

In following that mission, NWS has made some notable changes to their cold weather warnings, watches, and advisories that went into effect on October 1st. This is part of a long-term overall overhaul called the Hazard Simplification Project. Eventually the least urgent "advisory" and "statement" alert types will go away completely, as forecasters lean toward plain language headlines instead.

When I present winter weather information on the radio or in my weather blog, I focus largely on impacts. How much snow will fall? When will the brunt of the storm impede travel? How icy will the morning commute be? How cold will it get? Who will freeze, and who will not?

I mention official National Weather Service warnings, watches, and advisories only as they are relevant. They make good headlines and bullet points. But I don't always reference them, simply because I do not always agree with the criteria, geography, or timing.

So, in reality and in practice, these changes and consolidations are very minor.
Having said that, let's walk through the five new alert types and talk about the five products that have officially been retired.

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Freeze Watch

The Freeze Watch product already exists, and we will likely see some issued in New Jersey soon. They specifically caution that subfreezing temperatures (below 32 degrees Fahrenheit) are expected within the next 48 hours. As you can imagine, this can have big impacts for farmers and gardeners. Here in New Jersey, such watches are only issued at the beginning of freeze season (before November) or at the end (starting in April).

Now, the Hard Freeze Watch product is being retired, and consolidated into the Freeze Watch too. Its criteria is similar to that of the current Freeze Watch, but is issued when temperatures are forecast to drop below 28 degrees within 48 hours.

Freeze Warning

Same criteria and consolidation as the Freeze Watch.

A Freeze Warning will be issued when temperatures are expected to fall below 32 degrees within 12 to 36 hours, during the growing season. The former Hard Freeze Warning will now be issued under the Freeze Warning headline instead.

Cold Weather Advisory

The Cold Weather Advisory is a brand new alert headline that replaces the Wind Chill Advisory.

New Jersey will probably meet the criteria for this advisory a couple times over the winter. It is issued when the wind chill (the "feels like" or "apparent" temperature) is forecast to fall below -10 degrees Fahrenheit (-15 degrees in far northern NJ). That level of cold is downright dangerous to the human body, raising the risk for hypothermia and frostbite if unprotected.

Full disclosure: This is my least favorite change of the bunch. "Cold Weather Advisory" just sounds weird and so nonspecific. But NWS is leaning away from wind chill and heat index as human health indicators. And they can't call it an "Extreme Cold Advisory" because extreme and advisory contradict each other.

Extreme Cold Watch

Similarly, the Wind Chill Watch has gone away, merging with the preexisting Extreme Cold Watch. It will be issued when dangerously cold conditions are possible within the next day or two. The old Wind Chill Watch criteria required wind chills below -25 degrees Fahrenheit — yes, that is extreme cold!

Extreme Cold Warning

Same deal as the watch, as the Wind Chill Warning will now be issued as an Extreme Cold Warning when dangerous cold is imminent.

It is unlikely New Jersey will see one of these, although possible — New Jersey's all-time record low temperature is -34 degrees.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Check out Dan's weather blog or follow him on Facebook for your latest weather forecast updates.