The Bottom Line
Once again, proof that Mother Nature likes to ride roller coasters in the fall. We have quite the variety of temperatures in the forecast over the next few days. Tuesday will be chilly. Wednesday turns seasonable. Thursday will be mild. And then we're right back to the chilly side for Friday into the weekend.
Meanwhile, the weather will stay primarily dry and quiet. New Jersey's only storm system and chance of rain this week will be Thursday evening's cold front.
I had a thick layer of frost on my windshield early Tuesday morning, and you may very well find the same. The vast majority of the Garden State is waking up to temperatures in the 30s. (There are a few 20s sprinkled in, and some 40s around Cape May County only.)
It is going to be another chilly day, our third in a row. High temperatures will be limited to the upper 40s to around 50 degrees. Once again, more reminiscent of mid-December than mid-November, in the neighborhood of 5 to 7 degrees below normal.
Winds will blow lighter than they did on Monday, but may still be breezy at times. And we'll see lots of sunshine. So it's not all bad news.
With clear skies and calming winds, Tuesday night will be cold again. We'll average mid 30s by Wednesday morning.
Let the warmup begin! As warmer air arrives on a southerly wind, temperatures should push into the mid to upper 50s Wednesday afternoon. Much more typical for this time of year. We'll see a nice mix of sun and clouds overhead.
Models suggest a shower or flurry may clip the state Wednesday evening. No biggie.
Easily the warmest day of the week. Winds become southwesterly, surging temperatures into the mid to upper 60s. (70 is a distinct possibility in South Jersey.)
Our weather will turn cloudier and breezier again as Thursday progresses. But I have no hesitation in calling it a pleasant, mild day.
Eventually, a cold front will put a definitive end to the brief warmup. A quick round of scattered rain is likely Thursday evening. (FYI, some forecast models push in raindrops as early as 4 p.m. Thursday afternoon.)
By Midnight Thursday night, our weather dries out. And temperatures will start to tumble again. We'll be back in the frosty 30s again by Friday morning.
Right back to the December-ish chill. Sunny, breezy, and 40s.
The Extended Forecast
Temperatures will stay unseasonably cold through the weekend. (In fact, long-range models continue to suggest a cool second half of November overall.)
The next thing to watch is a storm system in the Sunday night to Monday time frame. The GFS vs. Euro show very different solutions regarding the strength and duration of precipitation. But both show a period of rain only — nothing wintry.
Still, it could be a sloppy start to the big Thanksgiving holiday week. So definitely worth watching closely.
Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.