Welcome to Summer: Sunshine, warmth, and spot storms for NJ
Severe Thunderstorm Warning until 6 p.m. for northern Ocean and southeastern Monmouth Counties for a severe storm with 60 mph winds.
Pretty typical weather is forecast for New Jersey's first day of Summer 2017, with warm temperatures, reasonable humidity, and a few showers and thunderstorms.
Tuesday turned out to be a glorious day, with sunshine and warmth. More importantly, humidity levels were much more reasonable than the previous days, making for a comfortable and pleasant end to Spring.
Summer officially arrived early Wednesday morning, and the first day of the new season will also feature "mostly" pleasant weather.
Some pesky clouds are hanging over central, southern, and coastal New Jersey Wednesday morning. Models seem to agree that clouds move out and sunshine resumes by mid-morning, so I'll keep an optimistic mostly sunny forecast for most of the day. Dew points will end up around 60 degrees — not bad. High temperatures will once again peak in the mid 80s — just above normal for mid-to-late June.
The only hiccup will be spot showers and thunderstorms that are expected to popup Wednesday afternoon and evening. (More precise timing would be between about 2 p.m. and 11 p.m.) It will NOT be a widespread severe weather and flash flooding outbreak like Monday. But there could be some strong storms over the Garden State, with the potential for brief periods of drenching rain, damaging winds, and frequent lightning. Especially given the timing, during the evening commute, it's worthwhile to watch the skies (either literally, digitally, or otherwise) since you don't want to get caught outside when it's pouring.
The rain threat should pulse down quickly after sunset Wednesday evening, with mostly clear skies and comfortable conditions resuming overnight. Lows should fall into the mid 60s for most of the state.
Thursday looks good — no complaints from me. Sun and clouds, light winds, and reasonable (yet slowly rising) humidity. Inland highs in the mid 80s, most coastal highs in the lower 80s, 70s on barrier islands. Forecast models have shown a blip of a shower at some point on Thursday — worth a mention, but I wouldn't worry about it ruining the day.
By Friday morning, the high humidity will be back. Blech. We'll end the workweek with a muggy and very warm day, as high temps soar to the 90 degree mark in SW NJ (at least). Skies will be mostly cloudy, and scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible. (Rain chance confidence is shaky, due to model uncertainty — NAM says dry, GFS says wet. Flip a coin for now.)
The weekend weather forecast is also iffy. Especially since potential impacts from Tropical Storm Cindy will come into play. Cindy is currently spinning in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico, packing maximum sustained winds of 60 mph. The center of this tropical storm will make landfall along the Texas-Louisiana border early Thursday morning, before being caught up in the jet stream and carried toward the north and east. While it certainly won't be a tropical storm by the time it potentially reaches New Jersey (or the near vicinity). But tropical moisture could be a major factor in our weather forecast.
For now, we'll carry unsettled weather into the start of the weekend, with showers and cloudy skies on Saturday. The forecast for Sunday looks better at the moment, but again that is dependent on the track and impacts of Cindy's remnants.