Partly sunny skies, 70s, and a few showers across NJ Tuesday
I'm writing this edition of the MDZ weather blog while viewing a beautiful sunrise, with some wonderfully comfortable temperatures outside. Your Tuesday starts off great, but could end on the stormy side.
Thermometers are generally in the 50s as we begin this Tuesday morning with crystal clear skies across the Garden State. Clouds will increase a bit by Tuesday afternoon — let's call it partly sunny. It will be another mild day, with a stiff breeze picking up out of the southwest up to 20 mph. A lovely start to a late Spring day (even if mid 70s are still slightly below normal for early June).
A cold front is scheduled to push from northwest to southeast across New Jersey starting in the afternoon hours. That front is expected to drive some showers and thunderstorms through the state too. But we're not talking about a severe weather or widespread flooding type of weather event — just a quick round of rain.
The HRRR mesoscale model (renowned for overdoing precipitation, by the way) shows showers over northern New Jersey as early as 11 a.m. Tuesday. The better chance for rain will really come after about 3 p.m. Our atmosphere is pretty dry right now, with dew points in the 50s. So for most of the state, we're just looking at some scattered showers.
As the front and the line of rain approaches South Jersey, however, extra moisture and energy (from the heat of the day) could lend to some heavier rain and stronger storms. The HRRR and GFS models both support a wet evening commute for the southern part of the state — but even that is not a guarantee, as the storms may not fire until after the front pushes off-shore.
Any showers will exit New Jersey by about 9 p.m. Tuesday evening at the latest. The rest of your overnight looks pleasant, with partly cloudy skies and comfortable low temperatures returning to the upper 50s.
The Wednesday forecast looks a little bit brighter, but I'm still thinking clouds will win the sky overall. Along with partly to mostly cloudy skies, temperatures will end up slightly cooler, with highs in the upper 60s. Forecast models paint a few raindrops over North Jersey Wednesday afternoon — but it's so light, and the chance so slight, it's hardly even worth mentioning.
Thursday still looks great, with a mix of sun and clouds, dry weather, and highs recovering to the lower 70s.
We'll get a taste of summertime on Friday, as warmer, more humid air returns. We'll see high temperatures in the lower to mid 80s away from the coast, alongside increasing clouds.
Our next storm system of significance (and next rain chance) will impact your weekend plans, I'm sorry to say. Showers may begin pushing into New Jersey as early as 4 p.m. Friday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible throughout the daytime hours on Saturday. Then steadier rain arrives from Saturday evening through much of Sunday. Ugh. (Do you get the sense that I hate weekend rain during the warm weather months???)
Now, keep in mind, this is a pretty volatile forecast. Very similar to last weekend's complicated forecast, any slight change in this storm system's setup (speed, position, etc.) will directly impact our weather conditions. I'm not ready to call any part of the weekend a "washout" yet, as there are still several more days for things to evolve and change. Bottom line... don't cancel your outdoor weekend plans just yet — let's keep a close eye on things for now, and I'll provide higher resolution and more confident details in the coming days.