Dry and Pleasant

For the past five days in a row — since last Tuesday's severe thunderstorms — it has rained somewhere in New Jersey. (Some days heavier and steadier than others, of course.) We finally saw a glimmer of dry, summer weather for part of Sunday as high temperatures spiked into the 80s across most of the state.

I'm happy to report that I'm pushing out a dry forecast for Monday — not even a "CYA" isolated shower chance during the day. It'll be quite pleasant too, with mostly to partly sunny skies. Temperatures will climb from about 55 to 60 degrees in the morning, into the 75 to 80 degree range by the afternoon. The cool spot, as usual, will be the Jersey Shore, with our coastal communities topping out in the upper 60s to around 70.

Monday night will be comfortable as well, with overnight lows dipping into the 50s. Clouds will start to increase after about Midnight, and I can't rule out an isolated shower popping up somewhere before sunrise.

Not So Much

Our weather will turn unsettled again on Tuesday, thanks to an approaching cold front. An isolated shower will be possible in far northern NJ during Tuesday morning's commute. The wet weather chance will increase and spread through the rest of the state starting around Tuesday late morning. Showers and thunderstorms will be likely through Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening too. Probably not a total washout of a day, but pretty wet overall.

Models suggest the aforementioned front may slow down or stall over South Jersey. That means I have to keep lingering showers in the forecast through at least Wednesday morning. (Showers may hold on through the afternoon hours, but I'm not willing to keep the day so dreary just yet.) We'll eventually enjoy increasing sunshine on Wednesday, spiking our high temperature back to around 80 degrees (away from the coast).

A Drying, Warming Trend

High pressure is expected to build over New Jersey through late-week, which will set us up for a solid start to the Memorial Day Weekend. (More on that in a moment.)

Thursday looks sunny and warm, with high temperatures in the lower 80s. That's about 5 to 10 degrees above normal for late May.

Friday looks mostly sunny, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. Whew, getting pretty steamy and summery!

The Memorial Day Weekend

One of the most important forecasts of the year, for the Jersey Shore's unofficial kickoff to summer! The weekend will start off great, albeit summery. And then our weather is expected to go downhill as the holiday weekend presses on.

For Saturday, I'm seeing partly sunny skies and almost dry weather (nothing more than an isolated nighttime shower). I have no hesitation calling Saturday HOT, with high temperatures around 90 degrees for inland New Jersey. Beaches will probably be in the 70s. (Get ready for some serious traffic — I suspect the Shore will be very popular on Saturday!)

Sunday looks iffy. I'm toiling between "mostly dry" and "mostly wet" — the day could literally swing either way. Scattered showers are currently modeled for Sunday morning in North Jersey and Sunday afternoon for the entire state, before drying out a bit Sunday night.

And then Memorial Day Monday is looking wet again, as a front combines with a disturbance riding up the Atlantic seaboard. It doesn't look like a washout, but not quite the ideal beach, barbecue, or Memorial Day ceremony weather either.

Keep in mind, there is very little forecast skill in the 6 to 8 day forecast range, so these expectations are subject to swing wildly as we get closer. I'll keep you updated here in the weather blog and on-air too — stay tuned!

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.