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NJ turns steamy and potentially stormy for Father’s Day Weekend

A marked increase in humidity will keep scattered showers and thunderstorms in New Jersey’s weather forecast for Friday and the weekend.

This is a complicated forecast. But I have to admit, it does look like pretty typical mid-June New Jersey weather — high humidity, warm temperatures, sun and clouds, and unsettled skies. That means we have to include a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms for each of the next four days (Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday).

Spotty convection is expected on Friday. That means a few showers and thunderstorms will be possible. Again, possible, not guaranteed. (It looks like the greatest forcing for storms will stay to our north.) And again, spotty, not a washout.

Meanwhile, even though we’re starting out comfortable with moderate humidity and temperatures around 60 degrees, that’s going to change dramatically by the end of the day. Increasing humidity will beget increasing clouds and increasing “steaminess”. That will be especially evident Friday night, as low temperatures are only able to fall to the mid to upper 60s at the coolest. We’ll leave a continuing chance for a shower in the forecast Friday night.

It’s hard to call this weekend “beach weather,” with the constant threat of a shower or storm. (Along with a moderate risk for dangerous rip currents.) But again, I have to stress that the rain activity will be “hit or miss” or “on and off” — even though it’s not going to be raining at all times, everyone in the state will be prone to get wet at some point. It’s one of those situations where I don’t want to pinpoint timing or locations, because it’s a guarantee that I’d be wrong.

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Saturday’s high temperatures will end up a hair above normal for this time of year, in the lower 80s. By Sunday, it’s going to feel pretty tropical with highs bouncing into the mid to upper 80s (maybe even 90 in SW NJ). I suspect Saturday will be wetter than Sunday, but that’s more of a gut feeling than well-documented scientific prediction.

Monday will get wetter, as a period of steady to heavy rain moves in at some point. Models diverge quite a bit on the timing of this front — GFS says early Monday morning, while NAM says Monday evening. We’ll see how that transpires. Regardless of timing, pockets of heavy rain and thunderstorms seem to be a good bet in our moist atmosphere.

Behind the rain will come relief! Humidity will drop substantially by Tuesday, making our atmosphere more comfortable. Until then, enjoy a taste of the tropics!

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.

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